Man this is great research! It's something I've also been talking about for quite a while. There is an obvious reason why the BLS Chief was fired and replaced with another "yes" lackey a few months back. The Federal Reserve has been clearly trying to keep everyone calm while also not so subtly saying that they see big problems forming under the hood, yet the Trump admin is putting about as much pressure as one can to see those interest rates come down. What likely will happen is that they will lose control of the back end of the YC, at the same time private equity / hedge funds are extremely exposed to Private Credit and have now once again tied in the Banking System. There is another "too big to fail" narrative that is forming right before our eyes, but at a time when Geopolitics and Sovereign Debt levels are tipping into crisis. It explains the massive commodities rally we've seen the past year. It's all going to blow up again like 2008, but the question is When. I still believe that the next two rate cuts will cause the blow off top that we see in most bubble pops before we tip into recession and likely have a sustained and painful correction that will decimate households.
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Trump's bombastic egotism and intolerance for being contradicted by his staff should embarrass his adherents, but many seem to see it as "strong leadership." The party that rightly opposed Obama's command economy policies and is now celebrating the same thing in a Republican guise. Republicans talk free market, but they enact economic fascism. It doesn't help this label when the MAGA crowd also celebrates ICE mass arrest and even military occupstions in American cities, but that's another topic for another day.
We need the market to set interest rates so they signal real demand for savings and investment. It should be a direct relation between how much money people want to save long-term, and how easy it is to borrow. This would guide business plans. Instead, low rates mean inflation outpaces interest for CDs and savings accounts. This has been the case basically my entire life. I don't remember the financial system ever really rewarding savings. This would build the foundation for progress and help tame the boom/bust cycle if there were funds for investment and savings to fuel real demand. Instead, we have cheap credit expansion as fiscal policy backed by nothing. The only way to "save" without losing real value is to play the market with ORAs, mutual funds, and the like. This shackles everyone to a volatile market, artificially increasing the demand for stocks even more.
And speaking of the market, I remember when the Dow Jones breaking 10,000 was a big deal. Between inflation, policies pushing retirement funds into these financial instruments connected to stocks, and the Cantillon effect of new money creating encouraging the first recipients to buy something other than devalued dollars as a store of value, the market looks healthy. But the stock market is not the real economy.