If you have read the previous part of this series or any part before it, the title of this one might surprise you. However, you should know that not only do I defend Xavi, but I actually believe with a few changes, he should stay for at least two seasons.
Xavi had a lot of problems in Barcelona, some went unsolved, some were solved, and some were solved but in a less-than-perfect way. Xavi isn't Pep Guardiola and probably won't ever be. However, taking the condition Barcelona were in and how the club went from where it was to where it is right now, Xavi has been an overall good thing for the club.
Managers aren't chess players, they're not in charge of inanimate objects which only they can determine the fate of along with the opposite coach. Players aren't inanimate objects and they're not facing inanimate objects. Xavi, much like all humans, are subject to many circumstances and events happening on and off the pitch. This post is dedicated to talking about those circumstances and events.
A Tale of Two Seasons
The XG or expected goals stats tell us how good teams are, some use it to tell us how good a team is in terms of how many chances they created, and another to tell us how good the finishing is, basically the stat can tell you more than one thing depending on how good you can interpret it. Let's Barcelona's XG to tell the story.
Based on XG stats we can easily learn that Barcelona come third in Europe in terms of XG. Behind Liverpool and Bayern Munich. What does this tell us?
Robert Lewandowski had only three seasons in which his goals were less than his expected goals, one was with Bayern and the two were his time at Barcelona. Last season, we all remember how Lewandowski was last season after the World Cup, however, he had an exceptional first half of that season, so let's talk about this one.
Lewandowski this season is far from his expected goals this season. Is he the only one? No. Many Barcelona players should have played better. So, the best reading we can conclude here is that the team should have scored many more goals than it did. Is that Barcelona's only problem? No. That's just literally one side of the problem.
The other side is what is known as Goals Saved Above Average or GSAA. This is the equivalent of the XG for keepers, or more precisely, the XG is used to determine this one. You take all the shots a keeper faces with all their percentages of success and you can determine whether he is average, below average, or above average. If the XG showed a keeper should have conceded 21 goals and his GSAA showed he only conceded 17, then he is above average, and vice versa if he conceded 25 goals.
Last season Ter Stegen's GSAA was above average, in fact, he was the highest among all La Liga keepers. This season, he is 15th. His replacement after injury, Iñaki Peña, comes dead last. This means that Stegen should have saved more shots, and even more so Iñaki Peña.
So, on both ends, Barcelona underperformed. Both stats are also fully dependent on individual performance. Xavi can't turn Iñaki Peña into Alisson, nor can he teach who many consider the best striker in the last 10 years how to score.
Unlucky Team
I know people don't like bringing up luck. However, stats and events do show us that Barcelona were unlucky this and even last season. Let's start with injuries. Last season and during the most crucial games in the UEFA Champions League group stage, Barcelona found itself without its defensive line.
This season, Barcelona are essentially playing with Pedri, losing Gavi and Balde until the end of the season, Cancelo has been more off the pitch than on. Not to mention Ter Stegen's injury which forced Barcelona into having Iñaki Peña. By the way, Iñaki Peña could be a great goalkeeper in the future, it's just now, that he is a disaster.
To be completely fair here, let me just say that I don't know how much effect Xavi has on the injury crises as it requires me to be an expert on the subject and knowledgeable in what is going on inside the club and whether it's a result of the training regime.
There's a possibility of bad luck here, as the same physical experts who turned Real Madrid players into beasts and prolonged Modric's career also had Hazard destroyed as sometimes you could do everything right and things still won't work out.
However, I do doubt it in the case of Barcelona. This number of injuries over such a period just points to something happening. We could never tell exactly whether it is just bad luck or something done wrong by Xavi's team, maybe a combination of both, but the result of it definitely shouldn't label Xavi's tactics as a failure.
Whether it is by luck or just incompetence, Xavi's tactics suffered as a result of missing crucial players over clinical periods.
Referreeing
I know people don't like talking about this one, especially in defence of Barcelona. But, refereeing has been atrocious in La Liga this season with many clear mistakes happening that did cost Barcelona matches. I know someone would point out that other teams may have suffered, but honestly, it doesn't matter in this context as it is the results that are behind the way Xavi is being judged.
So, yes, Madrid should have a goal here or there, however, that doesn't matter in the context of Xavi resigning because it is the result of Barcelona's results and has little to do with others. So, using it to point out how Xavi "should have done better" is a moot point. In fact, it leads to another problem Xavi can't fix.
The Win/Loss Effect
As I pointed out in the previous part, results do determine Barcelona's confidence. In fact, I pointed out how tactically Xavi did manage to fix some of the problems we see today, however, when your confidence is shattered, tactical lessons are often forgotten.
This applies to many coaches and teams, it happened to Pep's City, Klopp's Liverpool, and even Klopp's Dortmund. There are times when you can see the problem and know what to do on the tactical level but it just doesn't work. When a team is winning, many problems solve themselves. When the team is losing even more problems show up. Every player in Barcelona had games where he looked untouchable, where he looked like the best player in his position, and in another looked like the worst.
The Contrast
Last season Barcelona conceded 20 goals throughout the entire season, that number is close to doubling already this season. Iñaki Peña's shaken confidence and Ter Stegen isn't far behind are allowing more goals. Forget about the keepers, Kounde went from a signing worth 100 million to one worth 20-30 at best. Lewandowski, De Jong, Raphinha, Felix, Pedri, Gavi and Balde when they were around, and many other players lost confidence and ruined a lot of what was being built in the last few years.
Injuries, luck, and refereeing, often lead to losses, and losses lead to lost confidence. Lost confidence leads to more tactical problems which adds more to the facts leading to losses which lead to lost confidence and so on and on and on and on. It's an empty circle and it's covered by the dumbest sports media in the world, the Spanish media.
The Spanish media is easily the dumbest media in Europe, except for some names maybe. And I am making that exception only because I haven't read everything ever written by the Spanish media, but everything I read that was written by the Spanish media has been nothing short of dumb. Especially when discussing Barcelona's next coach, but more on that in the final part of this series.