Bitcoin Faucets and the Lindy Effect: How Much Longer Will BTC Faucets Survive?

in The CTP Swarmlast year (edited)

faucetlindy.jpg

Bitcoin faucets have been around for several years now, though some disappear pretty quickly. Indeed, there is no guarantee that any website (or anything else) will be here tomorrow, so what is a good rule of thumb to decide whether a bitcoin faucet is worth investing some time to work with?

One metric I use is the Lindy Effect. The Lindy Effect is a heuristic (a “rule of thumb”) that states:

The longer a non-perishable thing has been around, the longer it is likely to stick around…

This heuristic was articulated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book Antifragile in 2012, where he writes,

If a book has been in print for forty years, I can expect it to be in print for another forty years. But, and that is the main difference, if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another fifty years. This, simply, as a rule, tells you why things that have been around for a long time are not “aging” like persons, but “aging” in reverse. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy. This is an indicator of some robustness. The robustness of an item is proportional to its life!

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile, p. 318

What "Lindy" Suggests About Bitcoin Faucets

All the faucets I mention in the video have been around for several years now, so (all things being equal etc) we can reasonably expect them still to be around next year and beyond…

That is not a guarantee, mind you, and certainly not investment advice, just a "rule of thumb" for you to act on or not, as you see fit.




Launch Dates Of Bitcoin Faucets Mentioned In The Video



Bitcoin Faucet Launch Year
Freebitco.in2013
Cointiply.com2017
Autofaucet.Dutchycorp.space2018
Firefaucet.win2018
SatoshiHero.com2018
TrustDice.win2019
CrytpWin.io2020

I hope this gives you some context about some of the more established Bitcoin faucet sites. Their surviving for a few years gives them a greater probability of lasting for a few more years at least. Of course, there is never any guarantee that they will. Other factors to consider are whether or not they (1) ADAPT to change and (2) IMPROVE with time. So take care, don't throw any hard earned out-of-pocket cash into these sites, but start working with them as I do, if you’re interested in so doing.

Cheers!

David Hurley
#InspiredFocus

:)

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Thank you very much for sharing this.
I don't know about faucets,I now have a little knowledge about it.

Thanks for dropping by @jmis101 - I'm glad my post was informative for you.

!CTP
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You are welcome dear

Thank you for sharing this information about the faucet sites, and the metric, David! I still haven't given them a try, but perhaps I will soon! 😁 🙏 💚 ✨ 🤙

If you do, @tydynrain - use the Lindy Effect to guide you towards your first faucet!

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Indeed I will! It seems to be useful! Thank you! 😁 🙏 💚 ✨ 🤙

In my experience you need to have a lot of referrals if you want to earn more than just dust with the Faucets.
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Referrals are one important factor, and also relatively easy to get since faucets are free and offer instant earnings.

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Thanks, I dont really know anything about these faucets. Im sure those who used them in the beginning made some good bank with them.

Hi @mypathtofire - thanks for the comment. Actually, it's those who have a clear long-term plan and stick with it who make good profits on sites that have built in robustness and look good on the Lindy front!

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It is an interesting method i am not really a fan of faucets mainly because it takes time to make any real earnings from it and there is nothing really substantial connected to it.

Most are basically set up as activity gambling hubs.

Risingstar is almost a faucet in a way but i would trust that over all these others because it is also a game with NFT products backed by a community powered by Hive.

Satoshi hero that you mention for example i did start, then there was an update that froze my account for days then when i eventually got back in the amount had been reset to ZERO again.

Wishing you the best of luck mate and success😎

I do still login to freebitcoin site when i remember 🤣

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Thanks for the thought-provoking input, @heartbeatonhive :)

I'd like to respond to each point:

  1. I guess by "nothing really substantial" you mean that it's really a bit boring to click for a few satoshi, and that is certainly true. Also, it does take time to build up daily earning momentum, but it is possible as I show in my training videos.

  2. gambling hubs... True. I think people who have a moral objection to gambling should stay away from faucets. For me, however, I see the gambling side as another reason why sites such as Freebitcoin or TrustDice can become so robust. That's where they make their profit, which is why they survive long enough for the Lindy Effect to kick in.

  3. Risingstar is like a faucet - I loved this insight of yours. I'd never thought of Risingstar in those terms. I haven't got into Risingstar because I'm not so interested in the storyline, but as soon as I think of it as a "faucet" I'm suddenly more interested!

  4. Sorry to hear about your negative experience with Satoshi Hero. When I started with that site I think the minimum withdrawal was only 10,000 satoshi, but then they raised it to 20,000. It seemed like a long road to get to the 20,000 satoshi withdrawal requirement. When I hit the target I discovered that they'd raised the minimum AGAIN to 30,000 sats, so I was very mistrustful, but decided to give them one more chance and press on. I'm glad I did because I've had no problems since then, and most of my satoshi earnings come from referral activity on the site. I've made several 30,000 satoshi withdrawals from SatoshiHero to Freebitcoin with hardly any effort on my part.

  5. Freebitcoin... Do you have enough sats in your account to earn interest? (You need to have at least 30,000 sats to earn 4.08% p/a paid daily.) If not, let me know and I'll send you the balance to get you earning a few more sats per day. :)

!CTP
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👍Thank you for the detailed response my friend,yes i do find them a little dull and it does seem they are aimed at gambling i don't personally have a problem with this but a lot of these faucets seem to be focused on it i know for the most part it is optional.

I like that you advise not to put hard earned cash in i think this is smart.

Risingstar is absolutely basically a faucet on Hive it is super passive in the fact you just click a mission and come back when it is done.
Obviously once you go deep with it there are many other options to increase the way you use it to get more out of it.
I like that it has the NFT's because it is something to collect and trade too, i think it would fit in nicely with your faucet group.

The satoshi hero i just couldn't bring myself to continue when the account was cleared, there wasn't like there was loads in there but restarting just seemed like a waste of time.

Freebitcoin i need to look at it again really i only joined because it was in start earning today i am terrible at remembering it to be honest i currently have 0.00008845 BTC so i am way off i believe.

Have a good one buddy i enjoyed your post and video 😎
@hirohurl
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Okay, so if I send you 22,000 satoshi you'll have your 30k and will earn interest on it, which will be paid daily and gradually start compounding!

If you let me have your freebitcoin deposit address I'll send them over.

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The robustness of an item is proportional to its life!

I love this fact, I trust it is applicable in most areas

I wouldn't call it a "fact," but a useful "rule of thumb," a way of thinking that can be applied to non-perishable things in an uncertain world. It is not applicable to perishable things such as humans.

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Interesting share. Appreciate your sharing!

Like most people, I wish I had gotten involved with the faucets many years ago. !ALIVE

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Good luck with the faucets my friend have an awesome one😎
@hirohurl
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