In July, ODNI declassified and released 2017 HPSCI(Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence) Majority staff report regarding "Russia's Influence Campaign Targeting the 2016 US Presidential Election". Below is the link to ODNI press release:
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President Obama directed the creation of this January 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment after President Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, and it served as the basis for what was essentially a years-long coup against the duly elected President of the United States, subverting the will of the American people and attempting to delegitimize Donald Trump’s presidency.
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The declassified 46-page report in PDF format can be downloaded via the link below:
I'm archiving its text to make it searchable here. This is part 10.
The ICA Did Not Attempt to Explain Russian Leaks to Damage Trump That Were Inconsistent With ICA Judgments on Putin's intentions. The ICA does not directly address the GRU's September leaks of emails that were embarrassing to Trump and highly critical of his character. ICD 203 tradecraft standards indicate that the reader is owed an explanation for such contrary evidence, which is at odds with ICA assumptions behind the thesis that Putin "aspired" for Trump to win.
The GRU-associated DCLeaks.com in September 2016 leaked emails belonging to Colin Powell, the former Republican Secretary of State under President George W. Bush, according to media reports and forensic information. In the leaked emails, Secretary Powell attacked the character of candidate Trump: (redacted)
Donald Trump is "a national disgrace and an international pariah. All his lies and nonsense just pile up ... I just go back to the unforgivable one. Trying to destroy the President elected by the American people with his fictitious investigation into his source of birth. Absolutely disgraceful."
"Trump is taking on water. He doesn't have a GOP philosophy or even a conservative philosophy."
These leaks were contrary to the ICA judgments about Putin's intentions to help Trump. Yet instead of addressing the issue, the ICA only acknowledged that additional Russian compromises of US systems occurred, without tackling the significant implications of why Putin would want to hurt Trump. The ICA only notes that additional Russian compromises of US systems "may have" occurred (see box "Targeting Republicans").
What the ICA Says: Targeting Republicans
(redacted) "The GRU may have compromised additional personal email accounts of leading US political figures from both parties, judging from (redacted) on the extent of its spearphishing campaign from March through June" (emphasis). [ICA p.11]
(redacted) Although we saw Russian collection on some Republican-affiliated organizations, we have no reporting on whether Moscow collected similarly damaging Republican Party-related information. [ICA p.7]
If Putin wanted Trump to win, it would seem logical that he would not have leaked anti-Trump material.
Leaking the Powell emails that discredited Trump would make sense, however, if Putin didn't care who won.
Discrediting Trump would also be consistent with Putin's objectives to undermine faith in the US democratic process and to fuel divisions in the country.
The ICA Also Failed to Adequately Examine the Disparity in the Scope of Russian Leaks Involving Clinton and Trump. The ICA stops with simply stating the tact that this occurred (see box "Additional Compromises of US Political Figures.").
What the ICA Says: Additional Compromises of US Political Figures
(redacted) "We assess that the SVR and GRU both conducted cyber operations against targets associated with the 2016 US presidential election, including targets associated with both major US political parties." [ICA p.4]
The ICA leaves the reader to assume Russia's unequal leak activates were another data point confirming the thesis that Putin aspired to help Trump win. But the ICA fails to consider that Moscow likely had substantially fewer documents available on Trump.
Clinton's communications profile was larger and more exposed, as she ran a well-funded conventional campaign, connected to the Democratic National Committee (DNC).
Trump's smaller staff and unconventional campaign, by contrast, was less integrated with the Republican National Committee, and presented a smaller footprint and fewer opportunities for Putin to breach than was the case with Clinton's more traditional campaign.
Clinton was also likely to have been a priority Russian intelligence collection target for a much longer time than Trump (this was her second run for President and she was a high profile political personality for some 25 years). The ICA notes, by contrast, that Moscow only considered Trump a "fringe candidate" prior to the summer of 2016.
The ICA Failed to Adequately Address the Likelihood That Russian Intelligence Services Had Additional - Possibly Voluminous - Damaging information on Secretary Clinton. The ICA details the methods Russia employed to leak emails, but does not give sufficient consideration to Clinton's vulnerability to other collection, or the capabilities of Russian intelligence services to collect non-cyber sources, such as audio or video surveillance of private meetings or intercepts of her private calls with foreign leaders, Obama Administration officials, campaign managers or advisers, or other sensitive conversations.
Secretary Clinton would have been a Russian intelligence collection target for some 25 years, first as a politically active First Lady, then as a Senator on the Armed Services Committee, the Secretary of State, and as a two-time presidential candidate.
Her extensive travel overseas as Secretary of State - including to Russia - would have created situations where she was more vulnerable to various Russian intelligence surveillance and monitoring capabilities.
FBI Director Comey stated publicly in July 2016 that Secretary Clinton's careless security practices increased her vulnerability to intelligence collection.
We know that Putin held back significant derogatory material that he had on Secretary Clinton. But it is probable that he had more that what was contained in the ICA source material.