In July, ODNI declassified and released 2017 HPSCI(Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence) Majority staff report regarding "Russia's Influence Campaign Targeting the 2016 US Presidential Election". Below is the link to ODNI press release:
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President Obama directed the creation of this January 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment after President Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election, and it served as the basis for what was essentially a years-long coup against the duly elected President of the United States, subverting the will of the American people and attempting to delegitimize Donald Trump’s presidency.
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The declassified 46-page report in PDF format can be downloaded via the link below:
I'm archiving its text to make it searchable here. This is part 8.
Finding #5: The ICA Disregarded Russian Behavior That Undermined Its Judgment That Putin Aspired to Help Trump Win
ICD 203 notes that analysis requires "clear and logical argumentation" and that all analytic judgments should be effectively supported by relevant intelligence information and "coherent reasoning" (emphasis added).
"Clear and logical argumentation" would require the ICA to explain actions Putin took that damaged Trump, which were contrary to the ICA's judgments.
Similarly, "coherent" reasoning demands a thorough analysis of why, if Putin "aspired" to help Trump win, he did not take actions available to him at critical moments in the campaign that were consistent with those objectives.
The ICA also should have examined the full scope of covert influence options available to Putin, and what his action and inaction say about his true intentions.
The ICA Ignored That Putin's Decision Not to Help Trump in the Closing Weeks of the Campaign Was Not Consistent With ICA Judgments. The ICA judged that Putin wanted to "help Trump's chances of victory when possible by discrediting Secretary Clinton" and that he "never abandoned this objective."
Yet when the race evolved to the point that it became possible for Putin to help Trump win - the polls narrowed dramatically as Election Day approached - the ICA did not address why Putin chose not to leak more discrediting material on Clinton in order to "help Trump's chances of victory."(redacted)
(redacted) A variety of intelligence sources indicate that Russian experts on US politics were following the election polls, briefing Putin on the status of the race, and providing analysis of where the candidates were heading, according to CIA analysts.(redacted)
(redacted) the GRU warned Putin in early September that Trump would lose the election without the intervention of "remarkable" derogatory information on Clinton, according to (redacted)
As the election entered the decisive final stages in October, Putin possessed proven, low-risk, cut-out platforms for leaking documents via DCLeaks.com, Wikileaks, and Guccifer 2.0 and an arsenal of material on Clinton.(redacted)
(redacted) The SVR held particularly damaging information that likely would have created greater scandals than material already leaked by the GRU, (redacted).(redacted)
(redacted) CIA analysts confirmed that Moscow was receiving reports of US election polling. (redacted)
Clinton's strong (+7.0 percent) lead in mid-October gradually fell by over half (to +3.1 percent) by the end of the month, according to the Real Clear Politics average of key election polls. The lowest point came five days before the election, when her lead was down to just +1.3 percent. During those decisive final three weeks of the election, new scandals might have been expected to stand a good chance of sinking Clinton's struggling campaign (see box "Final Three Weeks of the Campaign").(redacted)
The Final Three Weeks of the Campaign: Real Clear Politics Poll Average
Date Clinton Trump Clinton 17 Oct 48.8 41.8 Clinton +7.0 18 Oct 49.0 41.9 Clinton +7.1 19 Oct 48.6 42.1 Clinton +6.5 20 Oct 48.5 42.1 Clinton +6.4 21 Oct 48.1 41.9 Clinton +6.2 22 Oct 48.0 41.9 Clinton +6.1 23 Oct 47.9 42.0 Clinton +5.9 24 Oct 47.8 42.3 Clinton +5.5 25 Oct 48.3 43.2 Clinton +5.1 26 Oct 48.4 43.0 Clinton +5.4 27 Oct 47.8 42.2 Clinton +5.6 28 Oct 47.1 42.5 Clinton +4.6 29 Oct 47.1 42.5 Clinton +4.6 30 Oct 47.6 43.3 Clinton +4.3 31 Oct 48.0 44.9 Clinton +3.1 01 Nov 47.5 45.3 Clinton +2.2 02 Nov 47.0 45.3 Clinton +1.7 03 Nov 46.6 45.3 Clinton +1.3 (in red) 04 Nov 46.4 44.8 Clinton +1.6 05 Nov 46.5 45.0 Clinton +1.5 06 Nov 46.6 44.8 Clinton +1.8 07 Nov 47.0 43.8 Clinton +3.2 08 Nov ELECTION DAY
- Clinton low-point shown in red [RealClearPolitics.com]
_Putin's decision not to leak additional derogatory information on Secretary Clinton as the polls narrowed undermines the ICA's claim that he "aspired" to help Trump win and "never entirely abandoned hope for a defeat of Secretary Clinton."
(redacted) Putin's decision to stop leaking is consistent with alternative explanations - omitted by the ICA - that Putin didn't care who won because he saw weaknesses for Russia in both candidates.(redacted)