Sweden and Finland abandoned their neutrality policy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And they announced that they wanted to join NATO. NATO also announced that it would take these two countries into the union as per its open door policy. But something happened that they did not anticipate. Turkey has declared that these countries are not interested in NATO membership. And the world agenda suddenly changed with Turkey's statement. Let's talk about what happened today. Why haven't Sweden and Finland been members of NATO until now? Why do they want to become members today? What are the views of NATO and Russia on this issue? But most importantly, why does Turkey oppose the NATO membership of these two countries? In other words, if we ask the question more accurately, why did Turkey turn the world agenda upside down through the NATO membership of these countries? There are many questions that we will seek answers to today.
Since the Cold War era, Finland and Sweden had different positions relative to other Eastern European countries. They remained neutral and during the cold war this was not a problem. In other words, they acted logically for that period by not choosing sides. Finland and Sweden remained neutral after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They neither favored Russia nor wanted to join NATO. After that, the Russian threat was slowly appearing. As Russia began to gain strength again, its effects began to be seen in Eastern Europe. However, Finland and Sweden did not mention the NATO issue because they were afraid of Putin. They probably didn't want to escalate when there was no threat to them. But now things are starting to change. Because by invading Ukraine, Russia has more or less shown what it will do from now on. If he doesn't get enough backlash, Putin seems to have set his mind on expanding his country into Europe. And in such a case, first Finland and then Sweden will be the first countries to feel the Russian threat.
Finland has a direct land border of 1,340 kilometers with Russia. And if Russia tries to attack from this border, there is no possibility of countering it. Because Finland is militarily nothing compared to Russia. Likewise, Sweden sees Russia under its nose after the invasion of Finland. It even has a maritime border with Russia. So it is under direct threat. And again, like Finland, Sweden is ineffective militarily compared to Russia. They also know that they will not be able to resist a possible Russian attack. Ukraine has a very large army compared to them. But even they are not considered a power against Russia. In other words, these two countries started to approach NATO, thinking what they would do to us who did these things to Ukraine. So why does NATO want them? In other words, countries with such weak military power will not benefit NATO.
Russian president Putin giving a speech about Finland and Sweden's join into NATO
Yes, in military terms, NATO will gain nothing with the acceptance of these two countries. It was possible to talk about a military contribution to Ukraine's membership. But there is no such contribution in the membership of these countries. The reason why NATO wants these is to get right under Russia's nose. Especially Finland is next to Russia. In other words, taking them into NATO means placing military bases, missile launchers, air defense systems and early warning radars at the bottom of Russia. This is a much larger contribution for NATO than the contribution of military force. Because if NATO and Russia go to war, NATO already has an overwhelming advantage over Russia. So it doesn't need a military contribution. Also, NATO has a different concern for Ukraine, Finland or Sweden. If he does not protect these, he will have turned a blind eye to Russia's expansion. Of course, this will strengthen the opposition a little more. For these reasons, NATO wants to include these two countries. And for these reasons, Russia is very clearly against the NATO membership of Finland and Sweden.
In other words, the entry of these countries into NATO will seriously strain the environment. Therefore, it is quite natural for NATO to have different views on this issue. Of course, when you look at it in general, NATO has made it clear that it supports the membership of these two countries. You already know that the organization has an open door policy. That's why those who want to come are not called to come. But the most important issue here is Turkey's position. Turkey was not very clear about this issue. So, what decision we would make was eagerly awaited. Yesterday, Turkish president made clear our stance on this issue. He said: "We follow the developments, but we do not have a positive attitude. Because the administrations before us made a mistake about Greece before. You know the attitude of Greece against Turkey, with NATO behind it. A second mistake in this regard is Turkey . We don't want to be treated as such."
PKK supporters in Sweden
In his statement, Erdogan also emphasized that Scandinavian countries have become guesthouses for terrorist organizations. He reminded that members of terrorist organizations in these countries can even enter the parliament as deputies. In other words, Turkey seems to veto the membership of these two countries. And Turkey's possible veto of course prevents these countries from joining NATO. There are probably different reasons why we don't want to see these two countries in NATO. Turish relations with Finland were generally good. There was no problem in bilateral relations. It is true that when Turkey launched an operation against the PKK in Afrin, the Finnish prime minister condemned it. However, although these have preserved their existence as issues that can be called problems between the two countries, the relations between the two countries were not bad in general. In other words, I don't think the main reason for the Finnish veto is related to Finno-Turkish relations. The reason has to do with Russia's sensitivities. Turkey has shown that it understands Russia's concerns on this issue. And Turkey is aware that it is pointless to have tensions with Russia on such an issue.
Turkey president Erdogan
But the same is not true for Sweden. Of course, Russia's sensitivities were taken into account in this matter as well. But Sweden is one of the countries in Europe that gives the clearest support to PKK members. PKK sympathizers in their country can act more freely than anywhere else in Europe. When Turkey wants these to be prevented, it receives a negative response. Sweden is not satisfied with this. Sweden is one of the biggest supporters of the PKK terrorist organization in Syria. Already when Turkey started the Afrin operation, Sweden wanted the operation to be ended immediately and threatened Turkey with the withdrawal of its ambassador. In addition, they allocate a budget to aid the PKK terrorist organization in Syria every year. For example, it is known that they allocated a budget of 376 million dollars for 2023. So after today, a stormy agenda is probably waiting for us on this issue.
Hi! Greetings from Finland!
I'd like to correct a couple of things in your post. Despite being a small country of about 6 million people, Finland actually has a very strong army. This is because we have been preparing for the enemy's attack for about 80 years. Back then there was The Winter War when Stalin tried to take Finland and failed.
Today, the Finnish army is modern and strong. We have the biggest artillery in western Europe. We have more tanks than Germany for example. We have 64 F-18 fighter jets and just bought 64 F-35s. We were the first European country to buy JASSM cruise missiles in 2012.
In our country military service is mandatory. Our troops are well trained and motivated. We can mobilize 300.000 soldiers to the eastern border within weeks. According to American military studies, Helsinki, the capital of Finland would be one of the most difficult cities to occupy in the world. This is mainly because of the deep, vast tunnel system in the bedrock under Helsinki. This was created for war.
Right now Russia is having huge difficulties in Ukraine. Finland with a much more modernized army than Ukraine would be a lot harder to take.
Finland is a very desired partner in the perspective of NATO and especially the USA. Our military budget is way above the NATO standards already and unlike many other NATO countries. As NATO partners, Finland and Sweden would also defend the Baltic airspace because we have our own fighter jets. This is big deal for NATO. They will benefit massively for us joining the alliance.
Hello, while I was writing my article, I thought that these sentences were a bit heavy, but later I was hesitant and shared without correcting. You are probably right in the numbers you have given and I am aware that Russia will fail much more in the cold forests of Finland, while it cannot make successful operations even in the swamplands of Ukraine. Because they have been before.
Thank you for the correction. Stay in peace.
Thanks, same to you. All the best!
We worked with @scientify on the writing of this article. It was a fun job for me. Since I am responsible for the writing of the HiveToday series, I have not been able to share content in the Explained series on my own blog lately. For this reason, we decided to do this job together with Scientify (he's my friend from the faculty). Thanks for your collaboration.