For the dollar/TB yes... still cheaper this and next year (probably the year after too). But if the QLC keeps getting cheaper and with more layers, it will be hard times for HDDs... the next year rulers of 300TBs are a reality already, from PureStorage for example (even if that only works with their storages), it means its being manufactured, and that creates competition with the rest of the market.
2 or 3 years more, and my inclination says, HDDs either are in deep trouble, or they will have to adapt to much larger capacities/sizes to face the manufacture competition cost.
Just as an example... a 24TB disk still does under 300MB/s throughput with a SATA interface. And this is probably the cheapest form factor. If we compare it with tape for example, LTO9 (not 10), does 400MB/s (uncompressed) stream. And has 18TB of capacity uncompressed. With current prices, that's around less than half $/TB of that 24TB disk just on TCO alone. And tape evolves at a much steady pace than HDD, because it has guaranteed customers around the world that need the cheapest tech for storing large amounts of data.
So yes... for me, HDDs are quite doomed... if they don't its because of market manipulation (interests) and not because of technology pressure.
I think with flash, write life is another concern for me. If I'm writing/rewriting a ton of data, I'll need enterprise drives for sure, and can't rely on cheaper consumer drives due to write life. If enterprise drives cost drops, I'm sure I'll be looking at those and those only.
It has a little component to worry yes, but only in quite advanced cases. Most devices nowadays already implement good algos to avoid some drastic wearing.
But even normal stuff can last a good 4 years. And to be honest after 4 years, you can probably get the same size flash thing for a quarter of the price. Still adds cost yes, but usually also brings other improvements. Disks will be harder, but yes, I agree they are a worry free kind of device. Hence why these lasted since 2009 thing... 15 years is a lot.
On NVMe's especially for things that have to write lots, and if you are worried about wearing, buy a SLC or old TLC drive, as they don't wear as much as the QLC or high end TLC and are perfect for write buffer operations. Most big storage solutions have implemented this because of that, and also because usually they have a higher IO/s + lower latency when designed for such applications (vs their lower capacity).
For the dollar/TB yes... still cheaper this and next year (probably the year after too). But if the QLC keeps getting cheaper and with more layers, it will be hard times for HDDs... the next year rulers of 300TBs are a reality already, from PureStorage for example (even if that only works with their storages), it means its being manufactured, and that creates competition with the rest of the market.
2 or 3 years more, and my inclination says, HDDs either are in deep trouble, or they will have to adapt to much larger capacities/sizes to face the manufacture competition cost.
Just as an example... a 24TB disk still does under 300MB/s throughput with a SATA interface. And this is probably the cheapest form factor. If we compare it with tape for example, LTO9 (not 10), does 400MB/s (uncompressed) stream. And has 18TB of capacity uncompressed. With current prices, that's around less than half $/TB of that 24TB disk just on TCO alone. And tape evolves at a much steady pace than HDD, because it has guaranteed customers around the world that need the cheapest tech for storing large amounts of data.
So yes... for me, HDDs are quite doomed... if they don't its because of market manipulation (interests) and not because of technology pressure.
I think with flash, write life is another concern for me. If I'm writing/rewriting a ton of data, I'll need enterprise drives for sure, and can't rely on cheaper consumer drives due to write life. If enterprise drives cost drops, I'm sure I'll be looking at those and those only.
It has a little component to worry yes, but only in quite advanced cases. Most devices nowadays already implement good algos to avoid some drastic wearing.
But even normal stuff can last a good 4 years. And to be honest after 4 years, you can probably get the same size flash thing for a quarter of the price. Still adds cost yes, but usually also brings other improvements. Disks will be harder, but yes, I agree they are a worry free kind of device. Hence why these lasted since 2009 thing... 15 years is a lot.
On NVMe's especially for things that have to write lots, and if you are worried about wearing, buy a SLC or old TLC drive, as they don't wear as much as the QLC or high end TLC and are perfect for write buffer operations. Most big storage solutions have implemented this because of that, and also because usually they have a higher IO/s + lower latency when designed for such applications (vs their lower capacity).