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I'm unfamiliar with that term. Does that mean politicians will now be too dumb to lie more often?

No, it's not about how smart or stupid politicians are. It's about how an unexpected event can change the rules of the game, and people try to explain it only after it has happened.

Yeah, I know but is the unexpected event that changes the rules the advent of the politician that is too dumb to lie.

Hey, hey hey... if an animated series predicted the Trump event, can we still talk about a black swan?? I mean the cartoon called The Simpsons. A certain category of people did anticipate it, after all.

I perceive staging (predetermination, preparation, and promotion) in no way as that black swan but as a made-up swan 😁(with botox, rouge, little handbags, shoes, and everything else necessary)