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Can you tell me how my analysis has failed? I'm always looking to improve. TIA.

Not only yours. Generally I don´t get why so much attention is paid on looking at charts (historic prices) when it is clear (at least to me) that they can´t predict the volatility in the crypto area. Ups and downs with cryptos are not driven by past prices but by market sentiment, action of whales/insiders or even tweet of specific persons. Or would you believe that a whale waits for selling/buying until the chart shows a signal? The other way round. Some insiders act and this creates then a different chart.
But chart analysis is good for doing multiple posts, traffic and users interaction which is probably the main reason and that´s fine anyway.

It's actually quite strange how the market moves... of course it's decisions made by investors and speculators at the end of the day, but it would be hard to deny that prices follow very predictable movements. Why is this so? Self-fulfilling prophecy: if the majority of traders use trend lines etc. to trade the price will move accordingly. In this day and age, a single tweet and decision can change how prices move. But it's hard to deny that prices can be predicted with some degree:

https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@tobetada/crypto-analysis-or-hive-50-today-1usd-soon

Zero HIVE

Zero HIVE

Well said! :) nice post again!