Those are some good points and while I agree with you that a tool in the right hands versus the wrong hands can have much different outcomes, I think we also need to be remind of the hubris that can quickly lead from one outcome to another.
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Hubris is certainly something that is not in short supply of late. It sometimes takes an uncomfortable duration become apparent in the marketplace of ideas, but it is always there, lurking like a spectre :)
To come back to your top level topic - "Are we cheating?" - Maybe a follow up question could be, what aren't we including in the models - and where are we definitely still doing the hard work?
I think for your follow up question a lot of it is still manual these days. I just have a feeling we are heading in a direction where things start compounding and there will be a point where we can't necessarily stop it. Who knows though. I may not even be alive to see it.
Perhaps it will just be narrower and narrower fields of expertise that we will not be able to fathom. Time has no corporeal voice, yet, it will somehow tell.