A bit more than a year ago, when the leadership in the US changed hands, the pressure towards Europe increased, the import tax war started, it was clear - to yours truly - that this would have long-term effects. Effects that may not be beneficial to US companies and the US economy at large. At first, it seemed nothing had happened in Europe. Some discussions here and there, but no action. EU leadership gave in to a trade deal with the Trump administration quite quickly. Europe continued to spend tons of money on products and services offered by US companies (including cloud and plenty of software products and solutions). Europe is increasing its spending towards US defence products (to give to Ukraine). And so forth.
But my thoughts and conviction back then: "These decisions and transformations take time! We'll see changes further down the line."
And exactly that is happening right now. Changes are surfacing almost daily over the last few months, with the most recent one: The Dutch Government blocking a friendly takeover of the Dutch IT company, Solvinity, by an US IT company, Kyndryl. The reason: the USA Cloud Act and associated US laws gives too much foreign judicial control over the data and services provided to all Dutch citizens since the application(s) are hosted under Solvinity's (source) control. This decision made yesterday morning will result in some more commotion: I expect Kyndryl to go to court, but at the same time, I will not be surprised if the Trump administration issues threats towards this side of the world. I am pretty sure none of those threats will change the new course our government has set.
Sovereignty is becoming a key topic in Europe these days. While a year ago, plenty of companies believed Microsoft CEO and CTO it could continue with an EU-based Microsoft company as an EU sovereign cloud solution; By now, most of these companies know it can not. The USA Cloud Act also applies to sister and daughter companies headquartered in the USA. While a year ago, many European companies may have thought the risks associated with the Cloud Act were more theory than reality for their own operations, by now many embrace the strategy to move away from US companies, their services, platforms and software. They started to realise the risks are too high, while supported by their realisation, plenty of European alternatives are around, and many new replacement services are being founded and emerging.
Below, I try to list just a few proof points coming to mind when thinking about this topic. Proof points showing how the European tech industry, companies, and governments are transitioning away from US products, services and control.
image: an example of a sovereign event... a Dutch organisation, on Dutch soil, with mostly Dutch citizens, and with two Dutch DJs (Benny Rodrigues to the left and Steve Rachmad to the right)
IT sector
The Dutch government forbids the takeover of the Dutch IT company 'Solvinity' by the USA company Kyndryl, the one I already mentioned above.
The French government decided to fully replace Microsoft solutions incl Office 365 and Azure Cloud, for all French government organisations by 2027. An aggressive move.
German Bundesland (aka State) 'Schleswig-Holstein' replaced Microsoft Office 365 with the open source LibreOffice.
The International Criminal Court, holding residency in The Hague, the Netherlands, replaced Office 365 with the open source OpenDesk.
The Dutch government cut a deal with the European hyperscaler STACKIT, a cloud platform established in 2018 by the retailer LIDL. A true Amazon story. LIDL developed a cloud platform for their own operations; in 2022 they launched their cloud to the public under new STACKIT brand/IT company.
Many companies started the 'sovereign' discussions - including a few customers of my employer I have weekly dealings with - to move away from Microsoft and other US cloud providers and services in the coming years; Some with an outlook to 2030, others with a more aggressive roadmap.
Co-founder of WeTransfer started an EU sovereign file transfer startup, Boomerang.
ex-Product Head of Blendle started an EU sovereign email and workplace startup, offering a seamless transformation patch away from Google Workplace (and Microsoft Office 365), Cirrux.
AI sector
French Mistral cut a deal with ASML and raised 1,7 Billion Euro and another 0,83 Billion Euro in conventional debt financing to scale their LLM operations in Europe.
Meta/Facebook ex-Chief AI Scientist Yann LeCun moved out of the US to launch his new AI company in Paris, Europe.
Dutch AI chip company Axelera AI raised a total of 450 million euros to start manufacturing its own developed AI chip, outnumbering the performance of NVIDIA chips many times. The factory will be built in the Netherlands.
Another Dutch AI chip company Euclyd is close to a production-ready NVIDIA contender for inference processes; Euclyd plans to stick to Europe (starting in the Netherlands) for production, and will continue R&D in the Netherlands.
Quantum sector
- QuantWare decided to stay in the Netherlands: In their last fundraising round, European and US investors put money on the table, totalling 153 million euros, agreeing to a high-volume factory being built in the Netherlands. Today, QuantWare is leading the market of quantum chips worldwide - larger than IBM and Google - and aiming to stay in that position for many years to come.
Defence sector
Various 'drone' deals with European and Ukrainian companies have been made thus far. The USA defence industry is not playing a role in this.
Discussions are ongoing for near-shoring the next-generation (fighter) planes, likely from European companies.
Alternatives to air defence systems, including the Patriot, are actively worked on as we speak, with several initiatives based on European (and Ukrainian) technologies.
Intelligence and oversight command currently provided and in the hands of the US, is slowly moving to European material, services and control.
Countries
UK seeking - after Brexit - closer cooperation with EU after their realisation the US isn't their best friend.
Canada is voicing the need for collaboration between smaller economies (countries) and seeking closer economic relations with the EU.
EU fast-tracking trade deals: It has already cut deals with Mercosur countries (LATAM), India, and others are in the planning.
These are just a few proof points, mostly related to technology and to the Netherlands. Many more examples can be found in the rest of Europe.
It'll be interesting to see what the situation will be in a few years.
2030 is an interesting marker in our Gregorian calendar system since I do believe many of the European governments and companies' mark 2030 as the year to be less dependent or even to be independent of US products and services; To be (more) sovereign; To be (fully) under the EU laws without US Cloud Act or any other US act, administration, or person being able to control data, software, platforms, services and products created, managed and in use by European entities.
What are your Thoughts?
What are your thoughts about being Sovereign?
What does sovereignty mean to you?
Do you think we will see a more powerful Europe emerging in the coming years?
...and what about the US and their influence on Europe (and the rest of the world)?
an original
all text and media are mine
I remember the talk when you were here... Certain things are moving, and it looks like those in power decided to take a different approach... Europe, USA, China, and other... Will see who picks the right choice...
PS. I didn't forget your messages from Telegram... I just got overwhelmed by a lot of stuff... we will be in contact...
What the right choices are, that is to be seen. For Europe I think the right choice is to become less dependent on the rest of the world in every aspect, and find mitigating measures for all the dependencies we have to keep intact, some not by choice like earth materials. I do like our strong (AI) chip, Quantum and drone play in the Netherlands, those can function as leverage. Am sure we have and are working on more of such leverage in the rest of Europe.
No worries regarding TG and the mini books I submitted to you 🎶
I would like the EU to speed up the process, bite the bullet and force US service companies to pay the full tax in the countries they earn it. Then, use that money to invest into the defence, IT and innovation sectors. There is a reason Trump stayed away from service tariffs - EU should focus on US services. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon... all of them.
ofc Trump stays away from services; US is a big exporter of services.
Some more speed would be very welcome indeed.
We should stop importing services and instead, build our own.
This is in process, at least in tech sector, but it isn't a fast process.
Though the 2030 is an interesting milestone ;)