With Riftwatchers around the corner many people, including myself, have pointed to it as one of the upcoming catalysts to SPS price by providing utility to the token. As I've taken a closer look at market cap and volume though, I'm starting to think differently about how impactful it may be.
The sale of Riftwatchers will consist of 3 million packs at $5 each, totaling to no more than $15M in volume (accounting for bonus packs given out). With SPS currently being around a $60M market cap, bringing in $15M more would only amount to a 25% increase in new money coming into the space, and that doesn't even account for people who will continue selling out of their positions due to the airdrop or private investor sale.
This isn't a perfect way to look at it by any means, as roughly half of SPS is locked up in staking right now. That supply shock should have some effect, but it won't happen in one day or even one week. We are all aware that Riftwatchers is coming, and I'm sure many of the whales are already loading up their SPS bags to make purchases when the time comes.
There are still at least 4 months between now and the release, so plenty can change of course. My focus was on market cap though and seeing how that would play out. In a perfect world, it doesn't seem to move the needle very much. I'm still long term bullish on SPS though and happy to be wrong if major price action comes sooner!
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▶️ 3Speak
I watched this one already but I can always appreciate your content! :) I'm on the blogging now! Looking forward to more of your content!
Appreciate the thought you put into this and I agree with your logic. Long-term is how we should all be looking down the road.