Splinterlands is Dead, but it doesn't know it yet...
Recently, I've been watching some @IdkSterling on YouTube who makes videos often with titles that state 'This Guy is Dead But Doesn't Know It Yet" and this is exactly how I feel about Splinterlands if nobody stands up to actually change the direction that has been chosen for many years now.
There is simply no world where players are going to keep buying 4$+ packs needing 1000+ of them with a near certainty that the card values will trend toward the tiny DEC Burn value eventually, on top with the price of DEC trading well below peg.
Upcoming New Reward Set Disaster...
So a new reward set should be released soon and they made the call after seeing how Frontiers Mode Unlocked reward cards brought enthusiasm and new players to go for a hybrid system where Gold Foil Cards will be unlocked and tradable while Regular Foil cards will be able to get unlocked by seperate rewards which allow these unlocks. Whenever you think the ideas can get worse, they come with something like this which obviously will turn out in the next Disastser...
--->> Who are the Buyers of Gold Card Reward Cards ????
I have absolutely no clue who will come in willing to buy the unlocked gold foil reward cards even right at the start. For Frontiers mode, it kind of made sense as it was a complete reset and there were no bag holder who could earn and dump. By now though, those card values also already collapsed (See below)
Basically you have a ton of Players / Bots who will be looking to grind and earn these cards with the only intention to get rid of them like hot potatoes (including myself)
Pretty much everyone is going to try to get some $$$ for the Gold cards they earn from rewards and they will be printed in mass while I don't really see anyone willing to buy them early on, which creates a situation where the price just constantly will be undercut to the point where they go for next to nothing. This will also raise the bar where gold foils will become the norm as they are so cheap which devalues regular reward cards who earn less reward shares.
Foundations Cards Price Collapse...
One month ago, I made a post on Why I was Dumped all my Foundation Cards for 20$ (Link) as it was really obvious what was going to happen.
Foundation Summoners 1 Month Ago... (6$)
Foundation Summoners Now... (1.54$)
So in a month, just the summoners (who still are the most valuable) went from 6$ for a single copy of each to 1.54$ and this new price is still crazy overvalued as they will eventually trend toward the minimum 0.01$ value where nobody will pick them up.
Upcoming New Reward Set Disaster...
So more cards will be printed from an upcoming Mini-Set mainly as a way for the Company to replenish their DEC Holdings, so they don't actually need to use the money that people give for credits which would support the ecosystem. Instead they continue to dump this DEC into the ecosystem. The thing they came up with is that they will sell the packs at a fixed price where SPS is worth 0.14$. This was done in the hope that SPS would be manipulated the value toward that price. What they didn't think of though, is that this that instead the price of SPS going up, a similar equilibrium can be reached by the price of DEC going down...
Basically, those who want to buy the set will start selling DEC for SPS as long as SPS gives a more favorable price. With the price of DEC going down, it also devalues all other assets as it increases the discount on packs.
Old Wild Cards Devaluation...
Older cards continue to just go down and down in value as they have near zero use case left in the game wile more cards are printed which on top have a ton of power creep. All of the current Modern Cards will suffer the same fate in that eventually they will be worth just the DEC burn cost.
MAX Level Common Cards which have a 2$ burn value when DEC is at peg now are going for as low as 1.59$ and they are not selling indicating there is zero buyers on the market for them.
The Printing Needs To Stop !!!!
The thing with Splinterlands is that there is still a core group of whales who keep buying everything that is put of even though they are shrinking. I would say that part of the Devs are completely delusional thinking things are going great in Splinterlands and new players are going to come in (there is zero evidence that new players who are willing to become real players let alone new whales are coming in). The main reason spellbooks were sold is because people saw an opportunity to earn some in Frontiers Mode with a limited investment.
I would argue that the other part of the Devs are fully blinded by the paychecks they are getting, with the main incentive to keep those going in the short term. All this just makes for very bad calls time after time again with an eye on the short term but always with a cost that needs to be paid in the longer term.
Solution...
The game simply needs to become more fun and accessible to new players, while fundamental flaws of the insane time requirements, along with the insane costs. The card supply should be reduced instead of expanded and a real new game mode should be created. I wrote about all of this last month (Link)
Conclusion
Splinterlands is a dead game unless it starts fixing some of its core issues. The frustrating thing is that few who are still here seem to understand, and I can recommend everyone to listen to what @lorkus has to say in the latest (YouTube Stream from @aftersound
Personally, I think Splinterlands has taken important steps in the right direction:
I share your concern, but not so much about the loss of market value of wild cards as about the loss of their usefulness in the game.
Giving old cards back their usefulness with fun in mind is also, in my opinion, the priority to consider.
Having read many of your posts, I know that your criticism, although strong, is constructive and that you care about Splinterlands.
I continue to enjoy playing Splinterlands, and even though there are problems to be solved, I still think Splinterlands is one of the best Web3 games and, in my opinion, it is not dead. At the same time, I think that cards should be at the heart of the game and giving them more and more utility should be the top priority.
Thanks, I still care about splinterlands and also think it's still the best crypto game out there. Everything comes from a point where I want positive change to happen. It's hard to stay positive though given how many things that feel blatantly obvious are going wrong. I really related to Lorkus in the last Afteround stream. Also, here on Hive, there is a strong positive sentiment on Splinterlands as that pays while all who don't like how things have gone have pretty much left and gave up.
A lot of words for a simple conclusion - run away. !LOLZ
I did that a couple of years ago when I saw no sense in buying in new and new sets just to stay in the game.
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I haven't really brought in any fesh money myself for years now and I am fully in the green, however I lost so much paper money by not selling everything while there was mass onboarding. I'm now waiting for things to heat up again but the way they are going about things there is no way that will ever happen.
Great summary, it would be hilarious if it wasnt all so tragic and avoidable. Appreciate the tip to sell the foundation cards, I pocketed the cash and it looks like a smart move. Splinterlands is not a top 10 active community on Hive anymore, so im not sure where the new players are?
Nice to know you managed to dump your Foundation cards and get something out of it!
Yes, they were turned to Sats and will go up in value forever.
I was getting a bit bored with this game; I was wasting too much time on it. My earnings were around $1 a day. Today, I made $812 on the stock exchange, putting in less effort, and wrote a post about the stock market game.
The time requirement indeed is just off the chart. Splinterlands should also not be about making money in the fist place. It should be a game where you can be confident about the value of your assets, have fun playing at the time that you want while getting some returns on your investment either by renting out your assets or by playing good.
Right now, none of it makes any sense.
I stopped after chaos legion... There were just so many money grabs going on during that time (new sets, mini sets, Land, SPS release, licenses). I wanted to see some of the opium dreams come true before I invested more money into it.... Still waiting.