all looks great yet looking at new player retention and the changes pushing more of them to quit playing, all I see is more quitting than joining lately...
If you look from December on we are on the greatest decline the game has seen yet
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I very much share your concerns. It's not even just new players right now though. As a mid level investor with a few hundred grand in value locked up in the game, I feel like I'm too big to care about the rewards for playing and too small to compete with the whales in the rental/voucher/sps drop markets. Feels like those my size are getting pushed out.
I wonder if you are interested in sharing your posting key with another to share 50% rewards, then your rewards are passive and with a great player you can earn tournament winnings and more rewards unless you play very well yourself. Our guild also needs a gold foil player if you want to try that out & not already in one. Thanks for commenting
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I think the interest level in the game is still very healthy. A few players probably joined and decided the game simply wasn't for them or it was too expensive to get started and dropped off but I think to expect a 100% retention rate is unreasonable.
A 100% retention rate would be ridiculous to expect but what they have right now is a negative retention rate since mid October. They are losing people faster than they can get them in the door. At the same time, not only did the rate of growth in getting people in the door stop increasing, It plummeted a literal 90% since its highs.
The market cap on SPS hasn't moved in months. DEC is down 65% in a month. The USD value in the rental market is back to where it was in the end of August when there were 1/5 the active accounts playing. Games played have been stuck for months and are declining. There is not a single metric I can find that is increasing right now in splinterlands except the level of income and free stuff being handed to the top/early investors in the game.
I invited a few of my friends into splinterlands but wasn't easy for newcomers and the airdrop rewards some of the alpha players got in return.
Very valid perspective. However, I don't think it is of any concern.
You have to remember that about a month ago, we were still growing at a rate of 5% every week. That is insane. Eventually it was going to slow down, and I believe that is where we are at currently.
Also, you don't know how many of these accounts that "stopped playing" could have been bots due to the recent changes. If you are an actual player, there is no reason to not keep playing, even if the rewards don't seem like much. Show me another game that you can pay a little over $10 and continuously earn every day by just taking 10-20 minutes out of your day to play an awesome game!
So just my personal opinion on the matter. Overall, I don't think the game is anywhere close to slowing down. If you quit now, you will definitely regret it soon.
I am not quitting yet 2 of my guild of 16 have quit and many going less active and often complain similarly as new players in the splinterlands discord do about lack of earning potential unless you sink thousands into cards.
The lack of earning potential? If the SPS airdrop and new voucher system for SPS stakers isn't good enough, then those people have some crazy expectations.
Also, at the core, Splinterlands is a card game. You get a free daily quest every day that can earn you more DEC or cards. That in itself is something you can't find with other games.
When I hear people say the earnings aren't worth it, my first thought is that they don't have realistic expectations. If you just play the game, you earn. If you rent out your cards, you earn. If you don't do anything, you still earn from the SPS airdrop!
Plus, in the near-future you will be able to earn SPS in ranked battles and brawls. So much on the slate, it is insane.
I think the quitting is because renters used to see profits of around 100-200% more than the rented amount, but because of the drop in DEC, they more often than not don't even get ROI. I think that's why there are more players quitting. I know a lot of people that use Splinterlands as a way to pay the bills and since the recent decline in the overall cryptospace, this isn't feasible any more. Overall the game is still one of the best out there, but the expectations of people blew out of proportion.
With DEC price further crashing, the only way to really earn in this game is to start actually getting your own cards and playing them. I expect this will happen once the CL gen sale is released. That being said, the barrier of entry into this game will definitely go up, because you'd also consider the cost of deck building.
Yeah the game spoiled everyone when it was at its peak. You can't expect that to always be the case, if you do, you will be disappointed.
Again, this is a game, not a full-time job or a way to earn a normal income. It can be more than a game, but that requires a lot of time beyond the game to identify the different investment strategies and stick with them.
Also, this game isn't a free-to-play game. It is all about having realistic expectations.
This. Can't agree enough. In any case, I look forward to owning my own cards this January.
I try to argue without being bias, but the amount of opportunities this game provides is unreal, especially for being a game!
Good luck during the general sale! Hope you buying as many packs as you want/can! Make sure you have your credits bought and are ready to buy as soon as the sale opens as I think it will go very quickly!
Agreed yet for people in 3rd world countries who are new... it is a bit different earning a few potions and credits is not quite what they expected.