I think people who have managed their Energy Capture Rate(ECR) will find the rewards are consistent for season rewards. This means that they add on average 5 chest per day to the season total. The Daily focus is harder at first and gets easier the further they progress in the season/league. (3 chest, 4 chest, 5 chest) Yes luck of the draw for focus makes a big difference to some people.
In 3 days I am at 18 chests which was the amount of chest I received last season in Silver 1.
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So far I have collected 8 champions chests. It's going very slowly because I managed to fall into gold 1. I believe towards the end of the season, as you said, it will get easier to do daily focus.