Over the years I’ve dabbled in all sorts of Splinterlands promos and speculative airdrops. Some paid off beautifully while others felt more like feeding DEC into a black hole, hoping something would pop out. But the Conclave Arcana Conflict presents a very specific kind of strategic gamble.
I don’t own any wagons yet. I barely have any Conclave Arcana cards. And I have zero CA or Rebellion packs sitting idle. But when I looked at the math of this event… it actually got interesting.
Let’s dive deep into the numbers and figure out the actual probability of pulling a Conflict card—and whether or not participating in Conclave Arcana Conflicts is justified in my case.
How the CA Conflict Works
Before running the numbers, here’s the high-level view:
You stake Rebellion or Conclave Arcana cards and packs in Battle Wagons.
- Over 30 days, you accumulate points.
- For every 100,000 points, you earn 1 entry into the airdrop.
- Each entry has a 0.125% chance to win the new card (Zyrx the Emberglace).
- After 800 entries, you get a guaranteed drop.
- Potion boosts improve Gold/Black foil odds but don’t affect card drop probability.
My Current Setup
As mentioned, I’m starting this event with basically nothing in place. No wagons, no staked packs. But I do have:
A maxed Black Foil Pickle (24,937 CP)
A maxed Regular Foil Pickle (2,100 CP)
565 BCX Regular Foil Pickles (2,825 CP total @ 5 CP/BCX)
A few Gold Foil commons (34 cards × 125 CP = 4,250 CP)
A single Gold Foil Pallus (Epic Rebellion = 2,500 → 1,250 CP due to 0.5x)
All of these cards together, using just 1 wagon, give me a total of:
34,637 Conclave Power Points
Which translates to (assuming 30 days of running a Wagon):
34,637 * 30 days * 24 hours = 24,938,640 or 249 entries
Now, given the formula:
Each entry has a 0.125% chance of yielding a drop
So 249 entries = 31.125% chance
Let’s reframe that: based on my CP, I have about a 1-in-3 chance of getting a card from this airdrop.
Not great odds.
Costs of the Lottery For Me
To even participate, I need a Battle Wagon. A brand-new one runs me about $5.85 right now. That’s not awful considering that Legendary Conclave Arcana cards are between $7 and $14 on the market
But the real question is: how much value can I reasonably gain from this $5.85 investment, given my current CP holdings?
Right now, if I stake all I have and get lucky, I might receive 1 card worth somewhere between $7 and $14.
That’s if I beat a 1-in-3 shot.
Let’s model the expected value (EV) of my participation using standard probability:
Probability of drop (p) = 0.00125 × 249 = 0.31125
Card value (EV) = around $10 midpoint for Zyrx
So:
Expected Return = 0.31125 × $10 = $3.1125
The expected value from this airdrop based on my current setup is less than my potential investment of $5.85. No wonder that I feel like the bet is not worth it for me.
When Does It Make Sense?
Let’s talk about at what threshold does it become profitable to make this bet. For this event to make guaranteed sense, I’d need to:
Earn 800 entries (guaranteed drop)
Get 80,000,000 points over 30 days = 111,111 CP staked for 24 hours
If I had that much CP in Conclave Arcana cards, and enough wagons to hold it all, I’d be guaranteed one Zyrx.
But I don’t. And frankly, almost no casual players do.
This event is designed with larger Conclave Arcana and Rebellion investors in mind. It favors those who:
Own lots of Conclave Arcana and Rebellion cards
Already have crafted wagons from Rebellion Conflicts
Final Analysis: Is It Worth It for Me?
Let’s break it down emotionally and financially.
Financially: No
At $5.85 for a wagon and a 1-in-3 chance of pulling a $10 card, this is a very bad deal from a purely economic perspective. I’d be better off buying a Zyrx off the market when it hits $10 or less.
Gameplay: Maybe
This is a very strong card and for competitive Modern League Players this card could come in very handy. At ten mana cost the usage of this card might be somewhat limited to higher mana battles.
Conflicts are not for everyone, and it’s certainly not the best use of capital if you're a smaller player and trying to make the most efficient bet with your limited funds on the future of Splinterlands.
Considering an expected negative return for me given my current card situation I am choosing to focus on SPS token as my ticket to the potential ride to the moon if Splinterlands gets an inflow of new players in the potentially coming altcoin season pump. SPS will be one of the most liquid assets and will reflect the success of the game in it's value, besides staking more SPS helps me earn more staking rewards, win more SPS and Glint tokens in ranked battles and earn more SPS on my SPS Validator Node.
If you have some staked SPS please vote for my SPS Validator Node HERE
I am also a Hive Witness and would really appreciate your vote for me as a witness: https://vote.hive.uno/@seattlea
If you wonder what is the best way to get involved you can use my link to begin your Splinterlands and HIVE journey.
I am lucky enough to have like 30 wagons, so I would see how it is going. I can also probably build one per week, but it is not worth the effort, as I use the land resources to get extra DEC, still got 20 lands to fill.
Added you on my witness list, too
Thank you, you vote is much appreciated!
good analysis here, in the end yea it's not worth a try, risk almost 6$ to get 3$ with a 30% chance makes really no sense
you could rent out the black foil in case one can stake on wagons the rented cards
playing with it for now :)
sorry, but I don't think it is going to work out for you.
Yes, that was mine conclusion as well...
so don't stake or buy wagon. If the cards are good you can buy them from the market
I think you are underestimating the value of the airdrop card, or possibly discounting it to a future price.
It's a card that starts very strong and gets progressively better at each level, as you say, not many will have a lot of copies. I think ppl will want to buy cards to get to the next level. Hence my thought that you are undervaluing the cash that be realised for a while after release. If it proves meta...well, there is your unknowable upside potential
That is true, it might be worth twice as much if it proves to be meta...
This whole conclave arena has all been foggy to me honestly in what it does in when and how. But I do love some shiny new stuff so it is always worth looking into.
I guess I will see some iron for people to create their wagons as this might get a bit too costly. Cool card though there!!
Sounds like a smart strategy.
Thanks for sharing! - @azircon
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Thanks for the upvote