In the latest Town Hall, @yabapmatt took the time to explain the reason why the chances of getting an airdropped card skyrocketed from 1/350 to 1/500. In short, the goal was to avoid printing too many copies of the airdropped cards compared to the other legendaries that were available in the packs right from the beginning. In other words, this move was simply to ensure a similar print number for all the Chaos Legion Legendary cards in the long run.
Timestamp - 1:48:30
He also added that from now on, the chances of getting an airdrop should be increasing by the expected 25 packs for each new incoming airdropped card. To be fair, I encourage you to take this number with a grain of salt as things might change depending on the economics of the game. Nonetheless, this gives us a rough idea of what to expect for the next Dragon Monster and the six Legendary Summoners.
In the table below, you'll find the detailed probabilities of getting one of those cards:
| Airdrop Nb. | Fraction | Percentage | Example: w/ 110 packs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8th | 1/525 | 0.1904% | 20.94% |
| 9th | 1/550 | 0.1818% | 20.00% |
| 10th | 1/575 | 0.1739% | 19.13% |
| 11th | 1/600 | 0.1666% | 18.33% |
| 12th | 1/625 | 0.1600% | 17.60% |
| 13th | 1/650 | 0.1538% | 16.92% |
| 14th | 1/675 | 0.1481% | 16.29% |
Get a quick glance at your chances
I wasn't able to insert the following snippet of code inside my post:
<html>
<input type="button" onCLick="myFunction();" value="Check your chances!" />
<script>
function myFunction() {
let nbPack = +prompt('How many packs have you purchased within Splinterlands?', 0);
let eighth = (nbPack * 0.1904).toFixed(2);
let ninth = (nbPack * 0.1818).toFixed(2);
let tenth = (nbPack * 0.1739).toFixed(2);
let eleventh = (nbPack * 0.1666).toFixed(2);
let twelfth = (nbPack * 0.1600).toFixed(2);
let thirteenth = (nbPack * 0.1538).toFixed(2);
let fourteenth = (nbPack * 0.1481).toFixed(2);
alert('8th: ' + eighth + '%' + ' ; ' + '9th: ' + ninth + '%' + ' ; ' + '10th: ' + tenth + '%' + ' ; ' + '11th: ' + eleventh + '%' + ' ; ' + '12th: ' + twelfth + '%' + ' ; ' + '13th: ' + thirteenth + '%' + ' ; ' + '14th: ' + fourteenth + '%');
}
</script>
</html>
The quick workaround
Step 1: Copy those few lines on your computer's text editor (example: Sublime Text).
Step 2: Save the file with the .html extension.
Step 3: Open the page and type in the number of packs you've purchased directly from Splinterlands.
Step 4: Look at all your chances for the coming airdrops.
Hope this basic tool was in some ways useful.
See you in the next one!
Thomas
PS: Ongoing little giveaway, 1 day left.
Nice work. Will feature/share this on my daily Splinterlands Digest post and on Twitter.
Thank you @globalwarming! I appreciate!
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