Retest, False Break or On the Edge of Glory?

Screenshot 2022-12-08 at 17-40-25 NYSE ARCA GOLD BUGS INDEX (^HUI) Charts Data & News - Yahoo Finance.png

The blue line is the "break out" line for the gold mining stocks. In the past week, the HUI Index of "unhedged miners", dropped down to retest the breakout, bounced off of this line, confirming that what was once resistance is now support.

Of concern is that today, the HUI posted a slightly down bar on the same day that gold and silver both posted a very positive day.

Could be nothing or it could be something. How is that for a very definitive, yes, maybe, possibly of no way answer?

Screenshot 2022-12-08 at 17-51-03 Woman Yelling At Cat Meme Generator - Imgflip.png

Of course, the answer is always "yes" as it always depends upon whether you are trading or investing.

Do you really trust that your brokerage firm is actually procuring your shares?

Screenshot 2022-12-08 at 17-54-50 SBF Meme Generator - Imgflip.png

Remember that we live in very interesting times, when what was done in the dark shall be shown in the light.

Screenshot 2022-12-08 at 17-38-56 Gold Futures Price - Investing.com.png

Speaking of light, bright and shiny things, GOLD also retested the breakout and has thus far bounced off of its breakout. So far so good, but we are in the early stages of an uptrend when all things are still possible even a bearish reversal. If gold takes out the previous HIGH then look for another run to the upside. If however, gold takes out the prior LOW then things get real complicated.

Screenshot 2022-12-08 at 17-39-32 Silver Futures Price - Investing.com.png

Silver, my personal favorite, looks ready to run.

If silver takes out the prior HIGH of $23.69 then we could see some nice upside movement.

Screenshot 2022-12-08 at 18-06-20 Buy Uncirculated American Silver Eagles JM Bullion™.png
source: JM Bullion

JM Bullion is having a sale on American Silver Eagles, with a premium of only $15 and some change above COMEX Futures. Now that has come down slightly but for context the premium is still almost twice the amount as in times past.

So there you have it!

Peace Out and Stack On!

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I remember when the premium on silver eagles was only a buck or two compared to .999 rounds. It seems to me the real price of physical silver is closer to $40 than $30.

My instincts say, Retest.
We'll probably look back a year from now and say, '$15 Premium? on any date $150 American silver Eagle? That's cheap.' 😉

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Ur so wrong..,.. it will be 18 months not a year 😊😊😊

I'm a Canadian living under the Castro Jr. regime so I can't help being pessimistic, or is it optimistic?🤔

A great analysis. I think that silver is due a rally !

I agree with your analysis, I think gold is just lagging behind, silver looks primed to explode

💯 agree!

“ with a premium of only $15 and some change above COMEX Futures. “ we I remember us talking about years back here. If they keep spot price down the real physical price will surge via premium. It was .79 cents in low grade rounds with max purchase and paying via check. Now it’s 60% premium. This is the real price of silver! 🪙

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We might be expecting some massive down on gold soon

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