A few people have started talking about HivePredict and using it for real, and the feedback has been incredible so far. I genuinely appreciate every bit of it. Whether it's bug reports, feature suggestions, or just letting me know something feels off, that kind of input is what keeps this project moving in the right direction. Thank you.
You can check the app out here: https://hivepredict.app
With real users now on the platform, the last stretch of work has been focused on making HivePredict more transparent, more reliable, and more aligned with what Hive is actually about. Here is what has been shipped (some of it based on user feedback).
Transparency first
Lol, so I built the app and didn't realise that I didn't put who built the app so it looked faceless and that kinda made people a little hesitant (I was too focused on shipping, haha).
You can now see exactly who built this thing and how it operates. Builder attribution is visible across the site with links back to my Hive profile (@beggars). The homepage, How It Works page, and market detail pages all clearly explain the platform mechanics, fee structure, and burn model. No hidden behavior.
There is also a brand new public Activity Feed at /activity. Every market creation, bet placement, refund, and resolution is logged and visible. You can filter by event type, market, or account. Every entry links directly to the on-chain transaction on HiveBlocks so you can verify everything yourself. The whole point is that you should not have to trust me. You can check.
Thank you @stayoutoftherz for pointing out the lack of any person on the app, lol.
5% burn on every resolved market
This is now live and built into the actual payout math. When a market resolves, 5% of the pool is burned by sending it to @null, which is the standard Hive burn mechanism. This is not just a promise on a landing page. It is real, it runs on every resolution, and you can see the burn records on resolved markets.
Thank you to @yecier for suggesting this.
Creator opening bet model
Market creation has changed. Instead of paying a flat creation fee to create markets, creators now place an opening bet on their own market when they create it. Your transfer becomes your first prediction on the side you believe in. This means every market starts with skin in the game from the person who made it. So the only fee is the tiny platform fee now, zero creation fees.
The old fee-based markets still work as they were. This change only applies to new markets going forward.
Losing bet notifications
Nobody likes losing, but at least now you will know about it right away. When a market resolves and you are on the losing side, the platform sends a dust transfer (0.001 HIVE) to your account with a memo that tells you the outcome, who won, and how much you lost. No more checking back on the dashboard to find out what happened. The notification comes to you on-chain.
Market activation clarity
Markets now require a minimum of 3 participants before they activate. While a market is still gathering participants, it shows as "forming" instead of "pending," along with a progress indicator showing how many more people need to join. This should make it much clearer what is happening with a market that has not kicked off yet.
I also made it so markets can no longer be one sided. It seemed strange to me that markets could technically have 3 participants and all be on the same side, so markets to be valid need to have participants on both sides or if the market ends, it is voided and everyone is refunded.
Reliability and backend improvements
A lot of work went into making the backend more resilient. Payout processing, market resolution, and prediction placement all got hardened against edge cases like duplicate processing, race conditions, and partial failures. The platform also gained a full integration test suite running against real Postgres to catch issues that mocked tests would miss. Several real bugs were found and fixed through this process.
I also added in a bunch of resilience and data integrity checks, including some disaster recovery tooling incase of anything happening to the Postgres database and other potential issues the app could face, allowing everything to be restored and replayed for 100% data integrity.
What is next
HivePredict is still early and I am building it in public. If you have ideas, complaints, or want to see something specific, hit me up on Hive. The feedback so far has shaped a lot of what shipped here and I want to keep that going.
There will be responsible betting features also coming as well, thanks to @davideownzall for his comment around this. The plan is to have caps, the ability to self-exclude and more due to the gambling nature of the app.
As I see it's possible to vote for an outcome right before the vote ends which would be an invite to abusing the system. Is there a mechanism to stop that? Maybe a setting at market creation or something based on type.
Great question. You're right something like this can be an abuse vector. I actually already had a proportional trading cutoff in place that automatically stops predictions before
bettingClosesAt. The buffer was 5% of the market's total duration, clamped between a 3-minute floor and a 72-hour ceiling. So a 10-day market would stop accepting bets 12 hours before close.But your point about market type is spot on. 5% isn't enough for a crypto market where anyone can watch the price in real-time. So I've just shipped category-aware cutoffs:
┌──────────────┬───────────────┐
│ Category │ Cutoff Buffer │
├──────────────┼───────────────┤
│ Crypto │ 10% │
├──────────────┼───────────────┤
│ Hive │ 10% │
├──────────────┼───────────────┤
│ Sports │ 8% │
├──────────────┼───────────────┤
│ Tech / Other │ 5% (default) │
└──────────────┴───────────────┘
A 10-day crypto market now cuts off trading a full 24 hours before close instead of 12.
On top of that, I've added early bird time weighting (earlier predictions get a larger effective share of the winnings). Each prediction is assigned a time fraction (0 = placed at creation, 1 = placed right at the cutoff), and when payouts are calculated:
effectiveStake = stake × (1 - timeFraction × 0.50)So a prediction at market creation keeps 100% of its stake weight, while one placed right at the cutoff only keeps 50%. Two users betting the same amount, but one at creation and one at the cutoff, the early bettor gets 2x the payout. This means even if someone sneaks in before the cutoff, they're taking a significant haircut on their winnings compared to people who committed early and took on more risk.
No extra fees for late bettors, just a smaller slice of the pie. The total payout pool stays the same, it just gets redistributed toward early participants who had more skin in the game.
I'll definitely keep an eye on things and tweak where needed based on feedback and how people use the app. But for a v1 it will do the job better than what was previously there.
That looks like a great solution. The numbers are maybe different as they should be, but only time will tell that. This info changes things, you should put it on the "How it works" page so people won't get disappointed because of an unknown mechanism.
I wanted to create a market on an upcoming very prestigous chess tournament. One of 8 players will win. Currently I can´t set it up, as it is restricted to certain sports and not a tournament with 8 participants. Could you maybe add this?
I love that, absolutely. Let me make it so more flexible markets can be created like that. It's already capable of doing that on the backend actually.
Great improvements! I added a gold market, hopefully other people join...
I just joined that one. Just needs one more person for it to be active. People seem to be coming now.
👌
Nice to see this, I made a post some time ago about predictions using the reward pool but this is a lot less controversial and straight forward.
Cheers legend, much appreciated. It's definitely a bit of new territory for me, it goes beyond a basic layer-2 game or app I'd usually build here. I just wanted to see a prediction type platform for Hive and was surprised to see there weren't any.
There's a lot of things we don't have here yet but hopefully soon, especially with AI assistance now. It'd be nice to see how the reward pool/hive can improve some of these ideas compared to other chains, as long as its used in a way stakeholders deem acceptable.
Anyway a lot of room for experiments!
Will try check the app out here soon.
I would like to suggest to put a time stamp on the bets, so we know when each bet was placed for transparency since you brought up a time based reward system where the early birds gets more of the pie than the late bidders 😎
Great idea, done. I didn't even notice I hadn't put dates on the predictions, but they were definitely needed.
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STOPThank you for this!
I think i will make soon a tutorial about this app
I'll keep an eye out for that tutorial.
As I see it's possible to vote for an outcome right before the vote ends which would be an invite to abusing the system. Is there a mechanism to stop that? Maybe a setting at market creation or something based on type.
So, let's see how it works :)
why mine is voided?
https://hivepredict.app/markets/aeaf94ce-af9f-4ed3-8ac8-ee8c94cd4c6e