GLOBAL RESILIENCE
So, let’s begin. The OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) has just revised its forecasts for global growth in 2025. And—surprise!—it’s better than expected! This means that despite the challenges we’ve seen around the globe, from geopolitical tensions to inflationary waves, the world economy is showing remarkable resilience.
It now projects growth of 3.2% for this year, compared to 2.9% it forecast in June. For 2026, the forecast remains steady at 2.9%. So, a slight slowdown from the 3.3% we saw in 2024, but still… better than expected. And that’s important because it boosts confidence in the global market—at least for now.
For the United States, the forecast for 2025 has been raised to 1.8% from 1.6%. Yes, it’s quite a bit lower than the 2.8% of 2024, but it still shows resilience. Especially considering the heavy atmosphere of uncertainty surrounding tariffs and geopolitical games. The American economy, despite the slowdown, maintains a decent pace.
The reason is that emerging markets like Brazil, India, and Indonesia performed better than expected. At the same time, artificial intelligence drove strong investments, mainly in the U.S. Companies are pouring billions into the development and use of AI, which brings multiplier effects for the economy. Additionally, there was massive front-loading—businesses rushing to import and place orders before the new tariffs came into effect—which gave an artificial boost to industrial production and trade.
****THE RISKS****
But… here’s where it gets tricky.
The OECD itself makes it clear that risks for the economy remain significant. Tariffs in the U.S. have now reached historic levels, up to 50% in some cases. The average tariff rate has soared to 19.5%, the highest level since 1933! We’re talking Great Depression levels. Not a joke.
And the worst hasn’t even been seen yet. Many tariff hikes are being phased in gradually, so their full impact will unfold over time. Companies are still absorbing the costs, but that won’t last forever. Soon, those costs will be passed on to consumers—in prices, in supermarket shelves, in raw materials, in transport. And that’s a mechanism that leads straight to inflationary pressures—you guessed it!
The OECD forecasts rising unemployment in some countries, fewer available jobs, and a slowdown in disinflation. In other words, the decline in inflation we saw in 2024 may stall—and even reverse. The forecast for U.S. inflation was cut to 2.7% for 2025 (from 3.2%), but they themselves admit that tariffs could push it back up.
And on top of all this, they worry about potential turmoil in markets, high prices in crypto—which, due to their increasing ties with traditional markets, could trigger domino effects—and generally greater instability in the global economic landscape. In such an environment, uncertainty is the only constant.
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AI has really paced way for new money to enter the US economy just as you've said. Nevertheless, reading down there seems to be consumer concerns when talking of tariffs. The pressure seems it will be high, could the government see a reconsideration before then?
Hopefully, the impact of the tariffs directly impacting customers via increased price of good and services will not turn into a new normal of sorts. I think AI investments should start translating into earnings and revenues in upcoming quarters, this could help maintain the global resilience.