Solana is once again in the spotlight. The token recently bounced 10.5% after testing the $191 level, but it’s still trading about 10% lower over the past two weeks. While rivals like Ethereum and BNB have performed better, investors are trying to figure out if SOL can regain momentum and possibly climb back to the $250 mark.
Investor sentiment and the bigger picture
Optimism improved over the weekend when U.S. President Donald Trump signaled plans to avoid a federal government shutdown. But Congress still hasn’t secured enough votes to pass a temporary funding bill, leaving markets cautious about possible “immediate economic ripples.”
Meanwhile, gold hit a record $3,833, showing that investors are uneasy about U.S. fiscal debt. With the Treasury paying over $1 trillion in annual interest, savers are turning to scarce assets like crypto. Even so, SOL has struggled to hold above $212, partly due to slowing network activity.
Solana’s activity decline compared to rivals
Over the past week, transactions on Solana dropped 10%, and network fees fell nearly 50%, according to Nansen. In contrast, competitors are growing fast:
BNB Chain saw fees jump 56%
Arbitrum and HyperEVM more than doubled their fee revenue
This shift has frustrated SOL investors, especially since Solana was once seen as the leader in decentralized exchange activity through projects like Raydium, Meteora, and Pump.
New competition: Hyperliquid, Aster, and edgeX
Adding to the pressure, projects like Hyperliquid, Aster, and edgeX are gaining traction in synthetic perpetual futures. Hyperliquid is even launching its own chain to cut fees and remove validators’ MEV, while Aster — backed by YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs) — plans its own layer-1. These developments highlight the growing competition Solana faces in areas where it was previously dominant.
The ETF factor: Solana’s biggest hope
For SOL bulls, the most important catalyst is the potential approval of a U.S. spot Solana ETF. The SEC faces a deadline on October 10, and analysts give a 95%+ chance of approval. If that happens, substantial institutional inflows could drive SOL higher in the months ahead.
Final thoughts
For now, Solana’s future price movement depends on two key factors: institutional inflows and the highly anticipated ETF approval. Weak on-chain activity alone doesn’t guarantee a price drop, and if institutional players begin accumulating, SOL could very well find its way back toward $250.