I believe after the just concluded continental championships i.e the euros and the Copa America, we have an obvious winner for this year balon d'or.
After doing well in term of individual performance, been highest goal scorer in the Spanish league and in the Copa America, Barcelona and Argentina maestro got the advantage for this individual accolade.
Before the tournament it wasn't quite clear till Argentina clinch to long waited Copa America trophy. I see no reason why Lionel Messi will be missing out on this year french award