The asteroid with the highest probability of impact on earth

The asteroid that does pose a potential risk to Earth is 1950 DA, this is not a small asteroid, it is more than a kilometer in diameter and poses a real risk.

We have radar images of it, captured in 2001 by the Arecibo radio observatory, and really because they don't rebuild it on this observatory it has given us a lot of information about the universe, it's a shame that it ended how it ended, they should really rebuild it would have to do something, a campaign or something.

This March 29, the NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies has published new calculations that define and refine the probabilities of impact of this asteroid for the year 2880, if it is within a long time but it is when this asteroid could impact with us.

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This asteroid, due to its dangerous potential and its size, has ranked first on the Sentry risk list since 2014. If it collided with us, it would not be the end of the world, but it would be large enough to disintegrate and transform crater a large city, cause a regional catastrophe, sweeping away thousands of square miles, and perhaps temporarily altering the earth's climate for a few years.

This would be a soft estimate, the magnitude of the disaster varies a lot if the impact is on the ocean, on a desert area or on an inhabited area, it also varies by the angle of entry, the density of the asteroid, the speed with which it travels, the faster the more kinetic energy and also the bigger the disaster.

This asteroid is not traveling slowly, it is going quite fast at 50400 km/h, so in 1950 AD it is no joke, when it comes to objects that travel millions of kilometers and with a perspective of centuries, any variation however small can change the result in a dramatic way, but you do have to take it into account and analyze it in great detail.

One of the calculations that scientists have to make is the Yarkovsky effect, which plays an important role in impact risk assessment and in other cases has required a very laborious intervention by scientists to manually calculate the probability of collision with the earth, making the calculations of the Yarkovsky effect is a real headache for astronomers.

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This effect explained in a simple way, is based on the incidence of sunlight on an asteroid, while one side of the asteroid absorbs solar radiation, the one that remains in the dark expels it, or radiates this causes a slight imbalance that little, little, is altering the trajectory of the object, keep in mind that we are talking about objects that travel hundreds of millions of kilometers and we are also talking in this case about a perspective of an asteroid that can impact us in a few centuries, so a small variation It can mean a dramatic change when it comes to calculating where it is going to happen or whether or not it can impact us.

At present, luckily, especially for the astronomers who had to do these very heavy and laborious calculations, the Sentry 2 system, launched recently, allows the Yarkovsky effect cases to be processed automatically and therefore more quickly and efficiently, including those of this asteroid 1950 DA.

After doing an analysis of the risk of this asteroid, the probability of impact has decreased, before it was in an impact probability between 1/8000, now with the new calculation it has remained in an impact probability between 1/30,000, so for now no there is risk with this asteroid, let's hope we haven't made a mistake.

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