Some time ago I made a publication about the 150 meter diameter DW asteroid 2023, this asteroid had a risk of impacting the earth on February 14, Valentine's Day or Valentine's Day in the year 2046.
Astronomers are constantly recalculating the trajectory of asteroids, increasing the data and knowledge about them, and it is normal that with each new calculation the risk decreases, although there are also some cases of the opposite, the probability increases.
The astronomers were successfully warning of the impact of seven asteroids that have hit the earth, which luckily have been small asteroids and have not caused problems, the last one was SAR2667, a small asteroid or meteroid just over a meter in diameter that disintegrated over northern France on February 13, 2023.
2023 DW, which is supposed to hit 2046 on Valentine's Day with its 50 meters in diameter, would obviously cause much more damage and is much more dangerous, but the latest data has reduced the possibility of an initial impact; it was calculated to be a 1 in 560 chance of impacting, a few days later he estimated that chance to be 1 in 625 and the latest calculation published by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies has reduced that probability of impact to 1 in 3600, that's the same as a 0.028% chance of a crash, it's very little.
This last calculation has brought with it the change in the Torino or Turin scale, 2023 DW went from level 1 to level 0 on a scale that goes up to 10, where you have to start asking to worry on this scale is when you get At level 3, at level 1 it means that occasional observations can detect the near-Earth passage of objects that have a certain danger of collision, but that this danger can be very low or even zero.
Level 0 is that the probability of a collision is zero or so low that it is practically nil and that zero level of risk on the Torino scale also applies to small objects such as meteors or celestial bodies that disintegrate as they pass through the atmosphere or that rarely fall to earth forming a meteorite.
If you are wondering what level 10 would mean on that scale, since 10 is the safe collision and also with the capacity to cause a global climate catastrophe that can threaten the future of civilization as we know it, wherever it impacts, on land or In the ocean it is the same, the effect would be catastrophic on a global level, according to this scale such events occur on average once every 100,000 years or more.
We no longer need to worry about 2023 DW drop at level 0, level 10
we would have to talk about asteroids of more than two or three kilometers in diameter, we must remain vigilant because Even a scale 10 event is only a matter of time before it occurs, perhaps in 100,000 years or perhaps sooner.
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Does this mean I have to go back to work on the 17th when my annual leave concludes? :D That's a shame.
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