Bitcoin (BTC) has had numerous exciting boom cycles that profited traders and "hodlers" considerably. However, those who believed in BTC's potential as a store of value or perhaps considered BTC acting as money as well with the Lightning Network may reconsider their support for the time being.
Yet, in 2022, BTC "hodlers" might have to be worried more than ever.
There is a quote from the early days for the BTC traders:
"This time is different".
Most will laugh it off and use this quote sarcastically since it was used quite often in the past as prices dropped severely and shorters were making claims how this time conditions, or perhaps the overall sentiment was different.
Of course, the chart followed a predetermined trajectory.
The charts predicted the extreme parabolic price increase and the horrible and painful downturn that would follow. Trololo and S2F made bold predictions and reached close, and eventually, both failed in 2021.
Bitcoin (BTC) charts contain one particular detail, which this time, indeed might be different.
Predictions End Here
I wrote about this before, but now at $28,000, it seems inevitable for BTC to touch $20,000 again.
This event will invalidate everything and send BTC down the gutter.
Bitcoin (BTC), during the 2020-2021 bull run after the third halving, achieved too little of what was expected.
Its current ATH at $69k is approximately three times higher than the previous one in 2017 ($20,000).
(Trololo chart for BTC)
(S2F Chart)
The chart predictions end here. I previously explained how S2F and Trololo were invalidated for BTC, yet also mentioned the vast potential in cryptocurrencies other than BTC.
From now on, it will be different.
At this stage, Bitcoin has low odds of recovery, and analysis points to a price below $20,000 to find a bottom.
Yet, this doesn't mean BTC will only drop from now on.
We should be expecting the first signs of recovery at the beginning of 2023, or perhaps by the end of 2022, as a best case scenario.
BTC will begin a new bullish cycle, together with the rest of the crypto market, starting from Q1 2023.
Sadly the market is attached to BTC due to the overwhelming resources of the Bitcoin (BTC) whales and the ties to the financial establishment.
Wall Street didn't enter Crypto to kill it but to slowly reap rewards, and use it as a speculative instrument for its purposes.
New Prediction: The Crypto Market Will Peak in 2025
Back in 2018, I published a different prediction, contrary to what most were expecting, praising BTC and knowing with a high certainty it will achieve way more than it did.
The price was 7000, and I called for 100k when everyone was exiting crypto, giving a precise date (summer 2021). Price reached 70,000 but didn't achieve the target, which was actually a modest one.
I was expecting $250,000 as of the top and then a crash.
I wrote that article when I was still naive about Bitcoin, still believing there was more than a hollow SoV narrative. With time and research convictions change, but not for everyone.
However, my point contained a fundamental difference from what the maximalists preach:
I realized BTC wasn't going anywhere in that direction, thus supporting other cryptocurrencies today that work towards achieving global adoption as P2P Cash.
As Alex Millar predicted in this video, another time, Bitcoin went all the way up to $20,000, and then it crashed down to $3,500.
Yet, the last time:
Bitcoin (BTC) went all the way up to $69,000, which compared to the previous rewards of 2017 was just 1/4th of what it should have been.
And now Bitcoin (BTC) is crashing again, but with one major difference.
It failed to reach a new level way higher than the previous one and is now on a trajectory closer to the 2017 price.
No more 100x for BTC, no more extreme wealth for hodlers, and perhaps the main reason BTC exploded past $25k at the beginning of 2021 was Elon Musk alone.
This video, together with the rise of positive sentiment in Bitcoin (BTC), convinced me in 2017 to speculate and buy Bitcoin.
That was in March 2017, before the August fork that produced two different directions for Bitcoin: BTC and Bitcoin Cash.
Also, this was before I realized how Bitcoin works.
I used BTC until the end of 2017 when it was proven unreliable, and I had to pay $25 fees for a BTC transaction that was added to a block a day later. I kept supporting it for a while more, though. Yet, upon examining BTC closely there is a moment everyone realizes it has no potential for global adoption and the L2 solutions are patches that will not work either for the majority of the public without centralization.
Yet, this post is the trader speaking, still, traders have a lot to learn to realize why BTC failed in their predictions in 2021 and stopped at $69,000 (twice, double top).
Bitcoin BTC hits $20k, then it's game over for the dreams of hodlers and ambitions of vast wealth.
This time BTC is out of mana. There is not an unlimited number of idiots out there to keep buying the new ATH, governments not buying into BTC as the maxis were expecting, and considering LN, it is not adopted not even at gunpoint (El Salvador).
In Conclusion
2024 is the fourth halving of BTC and Bitcoin BTC will relive moments of bullish sentiment, however, it won't be anything like before.
2025, won't be similar to 2013, 2017, or even 2021 for BTC, but any price prediction will be vastly overestimated and fail to present the vast profits everyone still expects.
2025 will be the end of extreme speculation in BTC, and the rest of the market will decide to remove it as a market leader and decider.
Once the price finds a definite bottom in the 2022 bear market we may be able to draw predictions again, yet, it won't be 1,000,000 as the Blockstream models suggest according to Samson Mow.
... (Samson) Mow said, based on Blockstream models predicting the price of bitcoin will have hit $1 million within the next five years...
We can't ignore the vast returns BTC offered to the early investors, yet, this was also the driving force for newcomers to Bitcoin.
The profit and the supposed guaranteed returns if only naive investors just hodl for five or ten years. The unrealistic returns are based on speculation upon speculation, but the limited-use case with the creation of custodial second layer networks.
Results on BTC will be poor considering the vast interest in robust and working blockchain networks that develop unaware of price volatility and expand userbase and merchant adoption.
Originally published at read.cash
Cover Photo by " xresch ", on Pixabay
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