The 51% Rule

in Proof of Brain2 days ago

One of the byproducts of having a lot of information, in terms of knowing a lot about many different things is it teaches you that 1) you can't have it all and 2) there's no one right way to go about taking action towards a particular desired outcome.

I know it seems vague. But there's really not enough clarity available through gathering a lot of information.

This stage is more so about having a knowledge base to spot patterns or connect the dots, that's the main edge I see but also, knowledge is power only when utilised. Oftentimes, patterns can be spotted but not acted upon for one reason or another.

Time in the market beats timing the market. And the more time you spend in any market, the easier it becomes to spot opportunities when they become available, sometimes earlier than the consensus.

It remains to be known however if that opportunity is executed upon before it passes or becomes saturated.

I think what really gives or rather makes a difference between having this knowledge base of information which gives one the ability to spot opportunities and not act upon them boils down to a handful of reasons, one of them is the lack of conviction in one's ability to execute and navigate uncertainty.

Standing at 51% certainty—some stay, some fly.
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Other factors could include fear of loss, attachment to existing comfort, or the paralysis that comes from seeing too many possibilities at once.

Why We See the Opportunity and Stay on the Shore
Hardly are the stars ever fully aligned, opportunities don't come fully dressed as opportunities and the probability of succeeding is never 100%.

For me, if it's more than 50% and the potential rewards outweigh the risk, then the ship is sailing, it's an adventure nonetheless regardless of what the results end up becoming.

Of course, better to stay on the shore when there are other factors beyond just a favourable risk reward ratio and/or the probability of succeeding more than 50%.

An example here is when the downside is catastrophic or irreversible or the timing conflicts with other critical priorities that would suffer from divided attention.

In some sense, clarity too once it becomes many has its own set of complexity, similar to the proverbial rise and fall of an empire.

Usually, the rise holds the fall as a seed of sorts that will only be triggered when the right conditions are met. Too much clarity, as in seeing every option clearly, fragments focus.

Clarity is dynamic. We each can have the same set of information but interpret it differently. Arguably, the quality of the interpretation depends on the frameworks we use, our past experiences, and the questions we're asking of the information itself.

Generally and however, I see it as different perspectives of the same thing.

No single interpretation holds a monopoly on truth, which is both liberating and demanding in equal measure.

Always take the least crowded road to authentic conviction.


Thanks for reading!! Share your thoughts below on the comments.

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Sadly, the majority rules us what most people vie for. Only a few actually follow the uncommon path.

Right, we just can't help it, the crowd is the most lively place to be and we feed off that liveliness. The uncommon part is where we face ourselves and come to terms with everything that it entails.

Thanks for stopping by :)