I don't personally believe it either. To be honest, I don't think either of the solutions are correct on themselves, more likely each of them playing a bit of a role in the final equation.
Or, we just happen to seriously be the first civilization out there, hey someone had to be first.
What if the estimates for evolutionary probability are wrong, and we ARE the only sentient species that has existed, does exist, and will ever exist? Is that scarier, or more comforting? On the one hand, no doom from beyond the stars to destroy us. On the other, no technologically advanced aid or trade will ever come from outside.