Good evening to all my friends. I hope you all doing well. Myself Abfarhan and i am from India. I am a full time trader and part time office worker.let me share about my day. My day was kinda boring. I went office early as I promised. When i reached there, there was so much work pending i completed all my work within time and log out at correct time. Came home at right time. Attended a live trading class. Everyday i do attend crypto trading classes. Btw let me tell you about market which given by my teacher. messy chart showing all levels. will delete more and send revised pic but you need to see messy chart first to understand where i was coming from. 20673-21.2 is the demand zone. because it is so easily seen on the chart, i was telling everyone that itll probably be a reaction trade not a naked long. i think if we are to gain support itll have price action like this (shown below), where a lower low is tried to be put in but we get massive CVD divs. I dont want to naked long because this area might have enough liquidity where MM dont have to participate (which means more down probably) The more I think about this, the more I start to lean into this zone. 4hr closes here are bad but there’s a CME gap starting at 20k. I wouldn’t be surprised if price came into 20k-20.6 zone and quickly gets bought up, giving us decent 4hr closes there which would trigger reaction longs.
Confirmation would be neutral CVD on the pump, or bullish CVD on the mini retrace after reaction.Does everyone understand what happens if CPI is worse than expected this time? We had 3 wrong CPI prints. Now they’ve “changed the algorithm” for CPI. If it comes in and shows inflation stronger than expected, markets will shit their pants. Everyone who longed october November December CPI is gonna start selling. I think a great lesson to learn here in relevance of the CPI data… if anyone remembers October, November, December, and what I was saying in the chat. Everytime we reached CPI I was bearish (I was wrong)
Never called a trade based off CPI, but I was wrong in the fact the CPI numbers being printed were better than I expected. Now here we are in February of 2023, 5 months later… and I was right about all the CPI numbers.bBut being right and making money are two different things. I can sit here and bitch the market is manipulated etc, but the truth is, the market was right and I was wrong. EVEN if I was right. Your bias, is not worth your cash. As I keep saying on live streams “if the market does not respect your idea, it’s simply not valid”
I hope you learned something from my post. Thank you all!!
I am very happy to read your post on CPI. Because you have written a very good post on CPI.