With auto-voting it should be trivial to make much more than 10%.
I agree, but I mean from an uninformed investor's perspective, you have to do more than just have HP.
There might be marginally safer ways to make 10% in crypto but outside of crypto 10% is really pushing it.
I'm not sure anything in crypto is a safe way to make 10%. Hive is just about 6 months old, but it's definitely not up 10%, so unless you got your Hive for free (I know most of us discussing here did), you aren't exactly better off.
What percentage have died? Do you consider Hive to be at a significant risk of dying?
It's hard to say what % died. I would say if the value is down over 90% and development activity is nil, it's dead. Hive isn't really dead and I think it is safe actually. It's the exception for low caps. But I've never put in this much research on any other investment (I really should address that).
STEEM's all-time low was $0.07. That was on March 10 2017. Its all-time high was $8.57 on January 3 2018. STEEM went up by a factor of 122. The March 2017 low of BTC was $965 and the December 2017 maximum was $19,655. BTC went up by a factor of 20.
This is the bias I was talking about. 3 years seems unfair. We should be using 5 years (common stock cycle) or 7 years (venture capital/business cycle). BTC starts looking better. Unfortunately, Hive or Steem hasn't been around that long so it's not possible to compare the 2. I'm pretty confident Hive will be around for 7 full years though, so eventually, we will have the data. But right now for Hive, the high is around 1$ and the low is around 15 cents in the past 6 months. This means the BETA is insane which goes back into my 'speculative' investment bit.
The impact of DeFi will be humongous.
I'm pretty sure this is what everyone who actually invests personally into crypto is here for. I got into a huge argument before I joined Hive about why I think privacy tokens are not going to do as well as ones that try to solve more pressing de-fi problems, such as those which deal with regulation, theft/pw protection, or User experience and complexity.
Honestly, I'm betting on something that isn't even released to the public yet to be the real game-changer. There are a lot of really neat projects.
Just delegate. Last checked there were several bids for a delegation offering 14% APR.
Can you clarify what you meant by that?
Hive is not low-cap, in my opinion. Not even remotely close. It's currently 134th on Coingecko. There are over 8000 coins. It's a middle-tier coin.
Why? This isn't the stock market. Most altcoins didn't even exist five years ago.
It's ALL speculative. As far as I know, there are no crypto projects, not even pure utility coins that rely on organic demand for a fair valuation.
UX is a major factor.
I don't think a single project will be the game changer. Metcalfe's law says that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its nodes. I think the degree of connectedness of the nodes is hugely important. Individual projects that do not communicate much with other projects or do it only via centralized exchanges are like islands. DeFi is one aspect of cross-chain interaction. When cross-chain interactions increase significantly, so will the network effect of the entire industry.
Hive is down more than 10% from the 90 days Moving Average. It's not a great way to make 10%. It's just too volatile. The future price depends heavily on future demand. We can only speculate on the future demand and hope it increases and the system continually improves. I see positive hope, but I think other cryptos have just as much or more of a chance at increasing 10%.
Some people define crypto with less than 1 billion USD market cap as low-cap (for stocks it's generally 2 billion). Over 10 billion is large-cap.
I'll be nice and say 200 million. Hive's is currently $66,833,269 making it a solid low cap (Lower would make it a penny stock). It's very easy for a single large anon. player to do something that creates a massive price swing.
Consider 60% or so is staked off the exchanges, 3million or so volume is alright though.
I think you may be right, but I also don't think it will necessarily be an existing cryptocurrency. It could be an existing asset. I'm keeping a close eye on central bank cryptocurrencies. They won't be a great investment, but then again neither are stable coins like tether and they are extremely popular and vital for de-fi.
This is why there are 200 million liquid HIVE as opposed to about 170 million powered up coins. But I think if you find that you don't have time or the right skill set to day trade or swing trade successfully, trading the multi-year waves and powering up between your trades is an excellent idea.
I believe it we'll see a crazy bull market top in Q4 2021 or Q1 2022. It'll be total casino when speculators sell their BTC and ETH at the top. Some of those profits will be reinvested in alts. Fireworks will ensue.
Comparing stocks and crypto is like comparing apples and oranges. Completely different beasts.
Bitcoin has an extremely top-heavy coin distribution. That very same thing can happen in BTC, too. This is why leveraged short and long positions keep exploding all the time. BTC whales bet against them and drive up the price causing a short squeeze when the short sellers are forced to buy. When they're done, the whales cash out.
No. 170 million are staked. About 200 million liquid HIVE sit on exchanges or in wallets controlled by individuals.
Central bank currencies a.k.a fiat money gets traded against cryptos on exchanges all the time. All a central bank crypto would do is bypass the banking sector.