If there's one thing you could bet on in crypto that's uncertainty. This market is unpredictable and a hell of a ride at the same time. I don't have any experience with the stocks market, but I doubt it is overall as volatile as crypto.
Yes, the difference between the total market cap of both asset classes is obvious, and for that manner stocks are harder to manipulate, but we often compare the two and I'd say crypto is still the wild west of them both.
Just a couple of months ago about 90% of the crypto market participants, myself included, were expecting BTC to move higher and higher towards that $100,000 tag for BTC that the majority was waiting for. The majority is always wrong and it was wrong this time to.
Now the majority feels like we are actually in a bear market, but everything is so confusing. Will we see a $20,000 BTC once again? Is $24,500 BTC the bottom for this phase?
Nobody has the answer. If it is for this phase to replicate the 2018-2020 one then we're still in for some more downward movement, but the metrics are totally different and the market might behave in a different manner.
Personally I believe we're gonna see a wick down to $20,000 sometimes this year. I don't think we're gonna be spending much time at that level, if it happens, but the whole rebound from $24,500 doesn't seem to be having much momentum.
Bear markets in crypto don't usually last just half a year, but on the other hand, previous bull markets have also pushed the price of BTC just a mere 3x higher than the past cycle ATH. BTC went only 3,5X from its 2017 peak to the 2021 one.
Hence, as I have commented today on one of @whatsup posts, the bear market could be a bit smoother and short lived as well. However, I still believe, or better said my gut feeling tells me that there has to be a final shake out. What do you think?
Thanks for attention,
Adrian
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Based on the previous 2 cycles this is the period we should drop 80% and we only dropped 60% and summer is coming.... So this is my expectation: https://leofinance.io/@whywhy/every-cycle-bitcoin-drops-84-from-its-top-will-this-cycle-be-different
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Based on the previous two cycles we should have already gone to $200k by now.
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Yup that is why it´s so confusing we only did a 7X compared to the 15X or 20X before, but it did not matter before if we did 15X or 20X the drop to the bottom was 84% from the top in both cases. So 84% from 68K is the worst case scenario
We've definitely hit the bottom unless a full-blown recession strikes the economy.
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I doubt we will not have a recession this year
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While we could be near a bottom, I think the economies around the world are entering a recession so there is more chance of it going down. Crypto is a little too correlated to the stock markets so I expect it to drag things down too. If the BTC bulls can't close above 30k soon, I think dropping down lower is the natural course.
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For sure
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