Whoever has been hitting the gym for a while now knows that it is easy to fall into patterns, easy to get into a routine that, at some point, will be detrimental to making gains. Our bodies and minds love repetition. If you look at your entire life, it is mostly comprised of a few habits that keep on repeating themselves.
The crypto market, to me, is a pure reflection of the psychology of the masses. There are, for sure, smart investors who made it big in here, but the rest of us have fallen over and over for the same mistakes and patterns. If we'd pay attention to the important patterns though, we would leverage the potential of cryptocurrencies to the max.
The overall consensus of the length of a bull market in crypto is around 1.5 years. Each time over the past three cycles or so, the crypto market has peaked something like 1.5 years after the halving. That's the official narrative. BTC somehow had two peaks in 2021, one at around $64,000 and the other at $69,000.
Whoever held since the bottom in 2018 at $3,000 all the way up to $64,000 and sold at that top is a clear winner. The ones who managed to sell the $69,000 top in November 2021 are the "absolute winners," but these ones had to go through an almost 50% correction from the first top of April 2021 to do so.
I am the type of person who mostly goes after the meat in between. I do not believe in buying bottoms and selling tops, although I kind of bought the bottom on DOGE this cycle. Thus, to me, it would have made much more sense to sell in April 2021 and avoid all the stress that followed.
It's not that much about numbers as it is about being content with yourself and the profits you have in your hands. I'd rather sell sooner than later, and this is what I am going to do this bull market. So, my take is that the current bull market will be shorter-lived than all of the previous ones, and my reasoning for that is that the halving coupled with the ETFs buying shit loads of BTC will make the current cycle more aggressive but shorter-lived.
Whoever thinks these ETFs will only see inflows is going to have a big surprise over the next couple of years as we enter the end of the 18.6 years real estate cycle. The current phase we are in right now with the markets is called "the winners curse" because every dumbhead can make money in almost any market.
I am not really good at reading charts and doing TA; I follow a few people who do that pretty well, but I am not basing my strategies solely on what others say. I like to study the psychology of people, and for the past couple of years or so, I managed to become good as a contrarian.
Had I done that during the 2021 bull market, I'd be way better off financially right now. Regrets are futile at this point, though... BTC has managed to nail in a new ATH a couple of weeks, but that does not mean the show is over (the halving is less than a month away). However, signs of getting close to the euphoria phase of the market, which precedes the top, are getting more and more obvious.
Have a look at this guy. A well-dressed chimp is lecturing plebs taking notes on Bitcoin and how to make it with Bitcoin in the following years. He charges $5,000 for his so-called courses... We've been here before with Onecoin and Bitconnect. These are similar cases that preceded huge blowoff top formations for Bitcoin.
BTC has plenty of room left to grow, but in my opinion, we are getting closer and closer to the explosive phase of the market where every shitcoin is pumping 100%-200% a day and all sorts of chimps like the one in the video linked above will push thousands into the slaughterhouse of buying the top and holding all the way to the bottom.
You don't need to pay anyone dressed like that guy $5,000 to teach you anything about Bitcoin. If you are serious about it, you can learn everything you need in a couple of months with just an internet connection and access to Twitter and YouTube. It's that simple, but if we did not have such cases making clear where we are in this cycle, we would not know when to sell.
The bull market will end probably in Q4 of 2024 to Q1 of 2025 in my opinion; ETFs will see massive outflows (probably too late for some investors, but not before we see massive inflows), plebs will get rekt, and no one will know it is a bear market until it will be more than obvious. Until then, enjoy the show ($1 million BTC targets are coming) and don't forget to reward yourself all the way up.
Bitcoin is not becoming the standard anytime soon...
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian