Over the course of the first quarter alone, analysts from Standard Chartered, Galaxy, and Corestone project that inflows into a spot bitcoin ETF might exceed $1 billion.
According to a study from the bank, if asset managers that sought to issue spot bitcoin ETFs are successful, there might be inflows of $50 billion to $100 billion this year. This implies that by the end of 2024, U.S. ETFs would hold 437,000–1.32 million additional bitcoins.
By the end of 2025, bitcoin would reach levels closer to $200,000 if the inflows are as anticipated, the bank predicted.
Standard Chartered likened the prospective bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) to the inaugural U.S.-based gold ETF, which debuted in November 2004. After that, in the seven years it took for gold ETP holdings to mature, the price of gold increased by more than four times.
Messari data shows that Bitcoin has increased by around 155% in the past year and by 6% since the beginning of 2024. Standard Chartered predicted that after acceptance, bitcoin might see gains akin to those of gold, but in a shorter amount of time (one to two years). The research stated, "We believe the BTC ETF market will grow faster."
If a bitcoin ETF is approved, Will McDonough, the chairman and founder of Cornerstone Capital, anticipates strong demand for it as well. By the conclusion of this year's first quarter, McDonough estimates that inflows will total about $1 billion.
"The obstacle of self-custody has kept many investors out of the asset class, through approving a 40 Act structure that can give investors exposure in their traditional brokerage accounts, means the demographic of investors that can allocate even just 1% of their portfolio to this growing alternative asset class is exponential, and I think price activity (given the fixed supply of Bitcoin) will be just as big," McDonough stated.
In a research published in October, Galaxy Digital projected that inflows into ETFs will total at least $14.4 billion during the first few years of the issue. "The inflows could ramp up by $27 billion by the second year and $39 billion by the third year," the analysis stated.
A lot of asset managers have also submitted applications for spot ether ETFs; decisions on these applications must be made by the end of May. According to Standard Chartered's research, the SEC is expected to approve ether ETFs.
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