Part 5/7:
Publicly, there are indications that the Trump Administration desires an end to the war, but the reality is complicated. Talks of increasing military aid should Russia decline the ceasefire are currently just that—talk. The true test of intent will come in the form of action. Should the Kremlin reject the ceasefire, it risks consolidating NATO's resolve against them and may prompt a deluge of military aid from the U.S. to Ukraine.
The Stakes and Potential Outcomes
We find ourselves in a high-stakes situation wherein the Kremlin’s response will shape the conflict's trajectory. Agreeing to the ceasefire could temporarily bolster Ukraine’s position with new defenses, while rejection could lead to a united NATO front and increased American support for Ukraine.