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The stakes extend beyond South Sudan's borders. Foreign powers, such as Uganda and Sudan, have manipulated the conflict to their advantage. Uganda has supported Kiir's government, while reports suggest that Sudan may have aided rebel groups opposing him, stoking fires that threaten to engulf not only South Sudan but also its neighbors.
With increased involvement from regional actors like the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, the conflict presents a potential flashpoint for a far-reaching regional catastrophe. Flammable conditions exist, as historical grievances between ethnic groups and rival political factions brew an environment ripe for violence. If violence flares in South Sudan, the disruptive effects could cascade across the African Horn.