Part 3/8:
The apprehension surrounding the tariffs stems from their capacity to trigger a recession. Historically, recessions in the United States—dating back to the 1940s—have always coincided with a rise in unemployment rates. A vital metric to consider in this context is the correlation between the unemployment rate and the S&P 500 performance. Trends show that stock market downturns often align with increases in unemployment, suggesting that if a recession is indeed on the horizon—for example, despite Trump's tariff pause—continued rises in unemployment could spell further declines for the S&P 500.