Part 7/10:
As the war drags on, Russia’s retention of the initiative complicates Ukrainian defensive efforts, making territory gains more challenging for Kyiv. Any downtime in hostilities could lead to Ukrainian fortifications being built, making future Russian advances more difficult. Thus, the landscape remains precarious and susceptible to shifts based on the evolving military and economic conditions.
Possible Scenarios Ahead
The relationship between oil prices and both sides' war expectations creates several potential scenarios for the future:
- Short-Term Decrease, Long-Term Recovery: If oil prices continue to fall and the recession is viewed as temporary, Russia may not feel the immediate impact fully, allowing it to maintain military operations longer than might be anticipated.