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In the event of a Russian incursion, the military operation could unfold rapidly. Russian forces from Kalinrad may move south while troops from Belarus strike northwest, with the initial goal of seizing control over critical zones such as the Polish town of Suwalki. Securing this area would grant Russia the advantage of defensive terrain while effectively isolating the Polish military's capabilities to counterattack.
Moreover, should Russian forces succeed in their objectives, towns such as Calvaria and Lasijay would become early targets. Capturing these settlements would sever the Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—from NATO's land-based support and resupply routes, significantly altering the dynamics of any ensuing conflict.