Part 3/12:
The Flawed Logic of the Halving-Driven Narrative
While intuitive, this theory overlooks critical nuances. The drop in miner rewards, from 50 to 25 BTC and subsequent reductions, has a diminishing impact over time. Going from 50 to 25 BTC was a substantial change—likely enough to influence the market. But subsequent halvings, such as from 6.25 to 3.125, have a smaller relative effect. Additionally, Bitcoin's inflation rate diminishes with each halving, but the actual market impact appears inconsistent.