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In recent cycles, structured flows—such as institutional investments, ETF launches, and increased retail access—are creating new sources of demand. For example, 2021 saw huge inflows through platforms like PayPal, Robinhood, and Coinbase going public. The introduction of Bitcoin futures ETFs and the narrative around institutional adoption have acted as "flow catalysts," pushing prices higher independently of halving schedules.
Macro Environment Overrules Supply-Driven Theories
The evidence heavily suggests that macroeconomic environment—liquidity, inflation, interest rates—dictates crypto cycles more strongly than the halving's supply mechanics. When liquidity conditions tighten, markets falter; when they ease, markets tend to rally.