Part 5/14:
In a scenario where Russia attempts a surprise attack, it faces a dilemma: strike with a small force to maintain the element of surprise or amass a larger force—potentially up to 100,000 troops—that risks detection and preemptive NATO action. The size, composition, and readiness of Russian forces for such an operation depend on how well they can pull units from Ukraine, Kalingrad, and other regions while maintaining their current engagements.
While Russia could theoretically muster a force around 150,000 to 200,000 troops dedicated to a Baltic campaign, the logistics, air support, and naval involvement would be critical factors in its success or failure. Russian air power, currently strained by commitments in Ukraine, would likely be outmatched by NATO’s superior technology and numbers.