Part 12/14:
In summary, while Russia possesses the military capacity for a limited, surprise operation in the Baltics, multiple factors significantly hinder the likelihood of a successful, sustained invasion. Intelligence and early warning systems would limit Russia’s surprise advantage, NATO’s rapid response capabilities are formidable, and geographical obstacles favor the defenders.
The outcome hinges heavily on Putin’s strategic calculus: would Russia risk a full-scale invasion that could provoke a NATO military response? Given the logistical, political, and strategic challenges, a full-scale invasion remains a high-stakes gamble with uncertain prospects for success.