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These ongoing disruptions threaten to diminish Russia’s exports by nearly 45%, creating economic pressure that could have long-lasting effects. Yet, the resilience of Moscow’s economy and military is uncertain. Russia continues to borrow extensively, while Ukrainian troops face setbacks and the country’s political landscape faces internal decay, exemplified by scandals and declining support for Zelensky.
Conclusion: The Uncertain Road Ahead
In a landscape marked by competing interests—economic, political, and military—the ultimate resolution to the Ukraine war remains elusive. The US’s pursuit of guarded diplomacy, European hesitations on seizing frozen assets, and Russia’s obstinate resistance highlight a complex game of negotiations, brinkmanship, and strategic calculations.