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AI Progress Slowing Down? Experts Weigh In

The Debate Over AI Scaling Limits

The Information reports that AI progress may be grinding to a halt, with OpenAI and Google facing slowdowns in model improvements using traditional scaling methods. This has sparked a debate among AI experts and researchers.

OpenAI's Slowdown and the Scaling Laws

According to the article, the increase in quality of OpenAI's upcoming Orion model is far smaller compared to the jump between GPT-3 and GPT-4. This suggests that the core assumption of scaling laws - that throwing more compute, data, and training time at models will lead to continuous improvement - may be reaching its limits.

The Opposing Views

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