Part 10/14:
Many economic indicators—such as the Leading Economic Indicator (LEI), manufacturing PMIs, and job figures—suggest a mixed picture. While some recession signals exist (e.g., declining LEI since 2022, softening labor markets), others show resilience, with earnings continuing to rise and PMIs trending upward. The author notes that traditional recession signals, like declining bank stocks or widening credit spreads, are not currently evident.
The debate continues: is this a typical correction, or are we heading toward a downturn? The author’s stance is that many of these indicators, when viewed in context, do not support a bubble or an imminent recession but rather a temporary adjustment within a bull market powered by AI-driven productivity.