Part 12/14:
Market Risks: Recession or Not?
While some data points to economic weakness, such as declining manufacturing activity and real estate, the author argues that the overall environment is more balanced. The resilience of earnings, along with the ongoing AI investment and infrastructure growth, suggest that a large-scale recession is not imminent—though a "mild" slowdown remains possible.
Additionally, the potential for policy shifts, such as Fed rate cuts, and the upcoming political landscape (like a new Fed chair appointment and the upcoming 2024 elections) add layers of uncertainty but also opportunity. Market corrections, in this view, are natural pauses before further gains.