Part 5/8:
Imagine a secluded tribe thriving on a fertile island suddenly met with an advanced civilization demanding submission—it exemplifies an OCP. Unlike Black Swans, which can sometimes be anticipated or contextualized, OCPs are contexts or events so out of the ordinary that they simply cannot be foreseen.
Preparing for the Unpredictable: Secondary and Tertiary Effects
Technological innovations and unforeseen disruptions often result in secondary and tertiary effects, which further complicate their impact. For instance, the advent of nuclear fusion could not only provide cheap energy but could also completely transform industries reliant on fossil fuels, leading to substantial societal shifts.