Part 3/8:
A critical takeaway from the conversation centers around the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Dow foresees a downward surprise in inflation measures throughout 2025, challenging the prevailing narrative of persistent inflation. This perspective hinges on the anticipated drop in rents and housing prices, which are integral components of inflation calculations. As rents decrease, he argues that the official inflation figures will eventually reflect these changes, leading to potential shocks in market expectations and Fed policies.