Part 3/9:
Predictions and Progress
Having predicted that computers would reach human-level intelligence by 2029—a claim that initially sparked skepticism—there is now a growing consensus that we may achieve this milestone even sooner. The interviewee attributed this to three converging trends:
Exponential Growth in Computational Power: The cost of computation has seen a dramatic, exponential decline, reflecting a 75 quadrillion fold increase in performance for the same cost since the advent of programmable computers.
Advancements in Algorithms: Ongoing developments in algorithms allow AI to learn and reason more efficiently.
Access to Massive Data Sets: Increased availability of data has enabled AI to refine its learning processes, further accelerating advancements.