Part 4/10:
To support the predictions, a detailed analysis of AI’s advancement growth was conducted, focusing on the concept of “jerk,” which in physics refers to the rate of change of acceleration. The discourse framed this within multiple orders of derivatives, measuring not merely AI's progress in terms of raw capability but also the acceleration of this capability over time.
The "jerk" phenomenon is crucial to understanding why many forecasts in the AI space have historically been underestimations. Predictions often relied solely on linear acceleration metrics, governed by Moore’s Law. However, as reported, the data indicates that AI’s trajectory has been more like "Moore's Law cubed," presenting steeper growth curves — representing not just acceleration, but acceleration of acceleration.