Part 6/7:
Using statistical modeling, one can estimate Judge’s probabilities of reaching the .400 mark. If he maintains his current trajectory and walks are factored into the equation, the estimated probability of achieving 163 hits from 407 at-bats is only approximately 1.7%. While this number casts doubt on the likelihood of an exceptional season, it is not entirely dismissive.
Judge’s unique profile—a blend of power hitting, elite contact quality, and high walk rates—presents him a better chance than other hitters in hitting .400 in today’s game. Still, this task remains steep, especially when considering the usual regression to the mean and inherent randomness of baseball.